<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<!DOCTYPE article PUBLIC "-//NLM//DTD Journal Publishing DTD v3.0 20080202//EN" "https://jats.nlm.nih.gov/nlm-dtd/publishing/3.0/journalpublishing3.dtd">
<article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" article-type="review-article" specific-use="SMUR" dtd-version="3.0" xml:lang="en">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">1680-7375</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2025-4341</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Opinion: The importance and future development of perturbed parameter ensembles in climate and atmospheric science</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Carslaw</surname>
<given-names>Ken S.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6800-154X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Regayre</surname>
<given-names>Leighton A.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2699-929X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Proske</surname>
<given-names>Ulrike</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3153-7228</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Gettelman</surname>
<given-names>Andrew</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8284-2599</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Sexton</surname>
<given-names>David M. H.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0004-0518</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Qian</surname>
<given-names>Yun</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Marshall</surname>
<given-names>Lauren</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1471-9481</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Wild</surname>
<given-names>Oliver</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6227-7035</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff7">
<sup>7</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>van Lier-Walqui</surname>
<given-names>Marcus</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0628-0045</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff8">
<sup>8</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff18">
<sup>18</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Oertel</surname>
<given-names>Annika</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3196-2304</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff9">
<sup>9</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Peatier</surname>
<given-names>Saloua</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff10">
<sup>10</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Yang</surname>
<given-names>Ben</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff11">
<sup>11</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Johnson</surname>
<given-names>Jill S.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4587-6722</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff12">
<sup>12</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Li</surname>
<given-names>Sihan</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2479-8665</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff13">
<sup>13</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>McCoy</surname>
<given-names>Daniel T.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1148-6475</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff14">
<sup>14</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Sanderson</surname>
<given-names>Benjamin M.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8635-4624</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff15">
<sup>15</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Williamson</surname>
<given-names>Christina J.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5188-9378</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff16">
<sup>16</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff19">
<sup>19</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Elsaesser</surname>
<given-names>Gregory S.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5785-4451</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff17">
<sup>17</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff20">
<sup>20</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Yamazaki</surname>
<given-names>Kuniko</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Booth</surname>
<given-names>Ben B. B.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0715-2141</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Hydrology and Environmental Hydraulics Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>Met Office, Exeter, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff6">
<label>6</label>
<addr-line>School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of St Andrews, St Andrews, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff7">
<label>7</label>
<addr-line>Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University, Lancaster, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff8">
<label>8</label>
<addr-line>NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA and Center for Climate Systems Research  (CCSR), The Earth Institute, Columbia University, NY, New York, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff9">
<label>9</label>
<addr-line>Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research Troposphere Research,  Karlsruhe, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff10">
<label>10</label>
<addr-line>Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff11">
<label>11</label>
<addr-line>School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff12">
<label>12</label>
<addr-line>School of Mathematical and Physical Sciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff13">
<label>13</label>
<addr-line>School of Geography and Planning, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff14">
<label>14</label>
<addr-line>Department of Atmospheric Science, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff15">
<label>15</label>
<addr-line>CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff16">
<label>16</label>
<addr-line>Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland and Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System  Research/Physics, University of Helsinki, Finland</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff17">
<label>17</label>
<addr-line>Department of Applied Physics and Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA and NASA Goddard  Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff18">
<label>18</label>
<addr-line>Center for Climate Systems Research (CCSR), The Earth Institute, Columbia University, NY, New York, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff19">
<label>19</label>
<addr-line>Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research/Physics, University of Helsinki, Finland</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff20">
<label>20</label>
<addr-line>NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>17</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2025</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>31</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2025 Ken S. Carslaw et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2025</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-4341/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-4341/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-4341/egusphere-2025-4341.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-4341/egusphere-2025-4341.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>A grand challenge in climate science is to translate advances in our fundamental understanding into reduced uncertainty in climate projections Model uncertainty, characterized for example by the spread of simulations of future climate projections, has changed little over the past few decades despite major advances in model complexity, resolution, and the growing number of intercomparison projects and observational datasets. Here we argue that the use of perturbed parameter ensembles (PPEs) would accelerate our understanding of uncertainty in its broadest sense and help identify strategies for reducing it. We make eleven recommendations for future research priorities, drawing on existing studies that use PPEs to guide model development and simplification, understand inter-model differences, more fully characterize the plausible spread in climate projections, formalize model calibration, define observational requirements, and investigate how interacting environmental conditions influence complex climate systems like cloud fields. These studies extend across climate, weather, atmospheric chemistry, clouds, aerosols and renewable energy using process-based high-resolution models through to global-scale models. Although increases in model complexity, resolution and intercomparison projects consume most computing resources today, we argue that, in synergy with these efforts, PPEs are essential for fully characterizing model uncertainty and improving model reliability, and that they should be prioritized when allocating those resources.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="31"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Natural Environment Research Council</funding-source>
<award-id>NE/X013901/1</award-id>
<award-id>NE/Y001028/1</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs2">
<funding-source>European Commission</funding-source>
<award-id>821205</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs3">
<funding-source>Research Council of Finland</funding-source>
<award-id>359166</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs4">
<funding-source>U.S. Department of Energy</funding-source>
<award-id>DE-SC0024161</award-id>
<award-id>DE-SC0021270</award-id>
<award-id>DE-SC0022323</award-id>
<award-id>DE-SC0023151</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs5">
<funding-source>National Aeronautics and Space Administration</funding-source>
<award-id>MAP NNH16ZDA001</award-id>
<award-id>MAP 80NSSC21K1498</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs6">
<funding-source>National Science Foundation</funding-source>
<award-id>2019625</award-id>
<award-id>AGS-2203001</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs7">
<funding-source>Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung</funding-source>
<award-id>217899</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs8">
<funding-source>Bundesministerium für Digitalisierung und Wirtschaftsstandort</funding-source>
<award-id>4823IDEAP6</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
<body/>
<back>
</back>
</article>