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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2025-3834</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Projecting changes in rainfall-induced landslide susceptibility across China under climate change</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Wang</surname>
<given-names>Jinqi</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Fang</surname>
<given-names>Hao</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Liu</surname>
<given-names>Kai</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Yue</surname>
<given-names>Yi</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Wang</surname>
<given-names>Ming</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Li</surname>
<given-names>Bohao</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Miao</surname>
<given-names>Xiaoyi</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Joint International Research Laboratory of Catastrophe Simulation and Systemic Risk Governance, Beijing Normal University,  Zhuhai 519087, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>School of National Safety and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Zhejiang Institute of Geosciences, Hangzhou 310007, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Qiantang Institute of Geosciences, Hangzhou 310007, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>08</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2025</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>25</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2025 Jinqi Wang et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2025</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-3834/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-3834/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-3834/egusphere-2025-3834.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-3834/egusphere-2025-3834.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Landslides pose a significant threat to human lives and property. Evaluating dynamic changes in landslide susceptibility under climate change can provide decision-making support for future disaster prevention. Using historical landslide inventories (2008&amp;ndash;2023) and a random forest algorithm, this study develops an annual-scale landslide susceptibility model to assess spatiotemporal patterns of landslide susceptibility across China under different simulated scenarios. The results show that model achieves excellent performance (AUC = 0.97), with annual precipitation being the most influential factor (26 % contribution). Compared to the baseline (1950&amp;ndash;2014), China&apos;s landslide susceptibility is projected to increase significantly under future climate conditions. By the late 21st century (2076&amp;ndash;2100), the national mean annual precipitation is expected to rise by 59&amp;ndash;111 mm, corresponding to a 4.3&amp;ndash;10.6 % expansion in median to very high susceptibility zones across SSP scenarios. Spatially, the most significant susceptibility increases are anticipated in the Northwest Loess Plateau region (Loess) near the Taihang Mountains and the northern part of the Southwest Karst Mountain region (SW), where SSP5-8.5 amplify risks toward the century&amp;rsquo;s end. These findings underscore the necessity of proactive risk management in these identified hotspots to mitigate escalating landslide threats.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="25"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>National Natural Science Foundation of China</funding-source>
<award-id>42377467</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs2">
<funding-source>Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities</funding-source>
<award-id>2243300007</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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