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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2025-3747</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Large Regional Differences in Antarctic Ice Shelf Mass Loss from Southern Ocean Warming and Meltwater Feedbacks</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Muilwijk</surname>
<given-names>Morven</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9101-6646</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Hattermann</surname>
<given-names>Tore</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5538-2267</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Beadling</surname>
<given-names>Rebecca L.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Swart</surname>
<given-names>Neil C.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Nummelin</surname>
<given-names>Aleksi</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7591-3504</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Guo</surname>
<given-names>Chuncheng</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6276-6499</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Chandler</surname>
<given-names>David M.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5759-2412</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Langebroek</surname>
<given-names>Petra</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1246-8781</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Zhou</surname>
<given-names>Shenjie</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9124-6270</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff7">
<sup>7</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Dutrieux</surname>
<given-names>Pierre</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8066-934X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff7">
<sup>7</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Chen</surname>
<given-names>Jia-Jia</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5438-0606</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff8">
<sup>8</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Danek</surname>
<given-names>Christopher</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4453-1140</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff9">
<sup>9</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>England</surname>
<given-names>Matthew H.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff10">
<sup>10</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff11">
<sup>11</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Griffies</surname>
<given-names>Stephen M.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3711-236X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff12">
<sup>12</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Haumann</surname>
<given-names>F. Alexander</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8218-977X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff9">
<sup>9</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff13">
<sup>13</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Jüling</surname>
<given-names>André</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2554-9641</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff14">
<sup>14</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Jouet</surname>
<given-names>Ombeline</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0009-0008-9928-5101</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff9">
<sup>9</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Li</surname>
<given-names>Qian</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff15">
<sup>15</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Martin</surname>
<given-names>Torge</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0882-8780</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff16">
<sup>16</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Marshall</surname>
<given-names>John</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff15">
<sup>15</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff17">
<sup>17</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Pauling</surname>
<given-names>Andrew G.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff18">
<sup>18</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Purich</surname>
<given-names>Ariaan</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff19">
<sup>19</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Song</surname>
<given-names>Zihan</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0009-0004-0490-7504</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff20">
<sup>20</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Smith</surname>
<given-names>Inga J.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff18">
<sup>18</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Thomas</surname>
<given-names>Max</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff21">
<sup>21</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Trombini</surname>
<given-names>Irene</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7070-7162</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff22">
<sup>22</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff23">
<sup>23</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>van der Linden</surname>
<given-names>Eveline</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5052-7095</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff14">
<sup>14</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Xu</surname>
<given-names>Xiaoqi</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff24">
<sup>24</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff25">
<sup>25</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Norwegian Polar Institute, Fram Centre, Tromsø, Norway</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Department of Earth and Environmental Science, Temple University, Philadelphia, PA, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>Danish Meteorological Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff6">
<label>6</label>
<addr-line>NORCE Research AS, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff7">
<label>7</label>
<addr-line>British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff8">
<label>8</label>
<addr-line>School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff9">
<label>9</label>
<addr-line>Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff10">
<label>10</label>
<addr-line>Centre for Marine Science and Innovation (CMSI), University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff11">
<label>11</label>
<addr-line>ARC Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff12">
<label>12</label>
<addr-line>Princeton University Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, NJ, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff13">
<label>13</label>
<addr-line>Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Munich, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff14">
<label>14</label>
<addr-line>Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, De Bilt, The Netherlands</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff15">
<label>15</label>
<addr-line>Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff16">
<label>16</label>
<addr-line>GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff17">
<label>17</label>
<addr-line>NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff18">
<label>18</label>
<addr-line>Department of Physics, University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff19">
<label>19</label>
<addr-line>School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, ARC Special Research Initiative for Securing Antarctica’s Environmental  Future, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff20">
<label>20</label>
<addr-line>Earth System Physics Section, Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff21">
<label>21</label>
<addr-line>Met Office Hadley Center, Exeter, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff22">
<label>22</label>
<addr-line>Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff23">
<label>23</label>
<addr-line>Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, National Research Council of Italy, Bologna, Italy</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff24">
<label>24</label>
<addr-line>Key Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modelling and Application, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff25">
<label>25</label>
<addr-line>University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>12</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2025</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>39</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2025 Morven Muilwijk et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2025</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-3747/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-3747/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-3747/egusphere-2025-3747.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-3747/egusphere-2025-3747.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>The increasing release of Antarctic meltwater represents one of the most profound, yet uncertain, consequences of global climate change. The absence of interactive ice sheets in state-of-the-art climate models prevents the direct calculation of ice-ocean feedbacks, leaving significant uncertainty in the global and regional consequences of meltwater discharge. This study leverages results from the Southern Ocean Freshwater Input from Antarctica (SOFIA) initiative to assess the ocean response to a 0.1 Sv meltwater perturbation and to infer the resulting feedback on ice shelf basal melting across 10 CMIP6 models. We analyze meltwater-induced temperature anomalies across distinct continental shelf regimes, compare them with SSP5-8.5 global warming-induced anomalies, and translate these into basal melt rates using a parameterization calibrated with a new observational climatology. Although the meltwater feedback is generally thought to amplify basal melting, our results demonstrate large regional differences, with implied enhanced ice shelf mass loss in some sectors but suppressed basal melting in others. The model ensemble indicates a warming feedback on the continental shelf in most East Antarctic regions, whereas in West Antarctica, the region with the greatest observed ice shelf mass loss in recent decades, most models simulate cooling or reduced warming, suggesting a negative feedback. This regional contrast implies that East Antarctica may play an increasingly dominant role in future ice shelf mass loss. Simulations support existing hypotheses linking these asymmetric temperature responses to strong regional connectivity and shelf break dynamics, including a strengthened Antarctic Slope Front, an accelerated Antarctic Slope Current, and reduced dense shelf water formation.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="39"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Horizon 2020</funding-source>
<award-id>101003826</award-id>
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<funding-source>Norges Forskningsråd</funding-source>
<award-id>314570</award-id>
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<funding-source>Office of Polar Programs</funding-source>
<award-id>NSF2319828</award-id>
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<funding-source>Australian Research Council</funding-source>
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<award-id>DP190100494</award-id>
<award-id>DP250100759</award-id>
<award-id>SR200100005</award-id>
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<award-id>I53C21000370006</award-id>
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<funding-source>HORIZON EUROPE European Research Council</funding-source>
<award-id>101060452</award-id>
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