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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">1812-0822</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2025-3699</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Modelling seawater pCO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; and pH in the Canary Islands region based on satellite measurements and machine learning techniques</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Sánchez-Mendoza</surname>
<given-names>Irene</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>González-Dávila</surname>
<given-names>Melchor</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3230-8985</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>González-Santana</surname>
<given-names>David</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Curbelo-Hernández</surname>
<given-names>David</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9826-7437</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Estupiñan-Santana</surname>
<given-names>David</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>González</surname>
<given-names>Aridane G.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5637-8841</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Santana-Casiano</surname>
<given-names>J. Magdalena</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7930-7683</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Instituto de Oceanografía y Cambio Global, QUIMA, Universidad de Las Palmas de Gran  Canaria, 35017 Las Palmas de Gran Canaria, Spain</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>28</day>
<month>08</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2025</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>39</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2025 Irene Sánchez-Mendoza et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2025</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-3699/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-3699/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-3699/egusphere-2025-3699.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-3699/egusphere-2025-3699.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>The improvement of remote sensing systems, together with the emergence of new model-fitting algorithms based on machine-learning techniques, has allowed the determination of the partial pressure of carbon dioxide (&lt;em&gt;p&lt;/em&gt;CO&lt;sub&gt;2,sw&lt;/sub&gt;) and pH (pH&lt;sub&gt;T,sw&lt;/sub&gt;) in the waters of the Canary Islands. Among all the fitted models, the most powerful one was the bootstrap aggregation (&lt;em&gt;bagging&lt;/em&gt;), giving a RMSE of 2.0 &amp;micro;atm (R&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; &amp;gt; 0.99) for &lt;em&gt;p&lt;/em&gt;CO&lt;sub&gt;2,sw&lt;/sub&gt; and RMSE of 0.002 for pH&lt;sub&gt;T,is&lt;/sub&gt;, although the multilinear regression (&lt;em&gt;MLR&lt;/em&gt;), neural network (&lt;em&gt;NN&lt;/em&gt;) and categorical boosting (&lt;em&gt;catBoost&lt;/em&gt;) also have a good predictive performance, with RMSE ranging from 5.4 to 10 &amp;micro;atm for 360 &amp;lt; &lt;em&gt;p&lt;/em&gt;CO&lt;sub&gt;2,sw&lt;/sub&gt; &amp;lt; 481 &amp;micro;atm and from 0.004 and 0.008 for 7.97 &amp;lt; pH&lt;sub&gt;T,is&lt;/sub&gt;&lt;sup&gt; &lt;/sup&gt;&amp;lt; 8.07. Using the most reliable model, it was determined that there is an interannual trend of 3.51 &amp;plusmn; 0.31 &amp;micro;atm yr&lt;sup&gt;-1&lt;/sup&gt; for &lt;em&gt;p&lt;/em&gt;CO&lt;sub&gt;2,sw&lt;/sub&gt; (which surpasses the rate of increase for atmospheric CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; of 2.3 &amp;micro;atm yr&lt;sup&gt;-1&lt;/sup&gt;) and an increase in acidity of -0.003 &amp;plusmn; 0.001 pH units yr&lt;sup&gt;-1&lt;/sup&gt;. The increase in both, the atmospheric CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; and the sea surface temperature of 0.2 &amp;deg;C yr&lt;sup&gt;-1 &lt;/sup&gt;observed in the 6-year period, influenced by the unprecedented 2023 marine heat wave, contribute to this important rate. Considering the Canary Islands between 13&amp;deg;&amp;ndash;19&amp;deg; W and 27&amp;deg;&amp;ndash;30&amp;deg; N, the region has moved from a slight CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; source of 0.90 Tg CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; yr&lt;sup&gt;-1&lt;/sup&gt; in 2019 to 4.5 Tg CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; yr&lt;sup&gt;-1&lt;/sup&gt; in 2024. After 2022, eastern locations that acted as an annual sink of CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; switched to acting as a source.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="39"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Consejería de Educación, Universidades, Cultura y Deportes, Gobierno de Canarias</funding-source>
<award-id>CarboCan</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs2">
<funding-source>Loro Parque Fundación</funding-source>
<award-id>CanOA</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
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