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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2025-3664</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Targeted Teleconnections and their Application to the Postprocessing of Climate Predictions</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Dalelane</surname>
<given-names>Clementine</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5995-9828</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Paxian</surname>
<given-names>Andreas</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Senande</surname>
<given-names>Martín</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Sanfiz</surname>
<given-names>Sabela</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Rodríguez Guisado</surname>
<given-names>Estéban</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Wandel</surname>
<given-names>Jan</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Tyagi</surname>
<given-names>Abhinav</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD), Frankfurter Str. 135, Offenbach, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMET), C/ Leonardo Prieto Castro, 8, Ciudad Universitaria, Madrid, Spain</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Fraunhofer Institute for Energy Economics and Energy System Technology (IEE), Joseph–Beuys–Straße 8, Kassel, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Mitiga Solutions, Carrer de Julia Portet, 3, 08002 Barcelona, Spain</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>08</day>
<month>08</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2025</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>23</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2025 Clementine Dalelane et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2025</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-3664/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-3664/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-3664/egusphere-2025-3664.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-3664/egusphere-2025-3664.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>The demand for skillful climate predictions on subseasonal-to-multidecadal time scales is rising almost by the day, not least because the growing renewable energy sector, but also many other important socio&amp;ndash;economic sectors are vulnerable to climate variations. Large scale atmospheric patterns in the North&amp;ndash;Atlantic European sector, so-called teleconnections, are well known to have major influence on European climate conditions. For that reason there exists a wide variety of hybrid dynamical&amp;ndash;statistical applications, which combine dynamical model output with teleconnections in one way or another to improve the rather modest predictive skill of state-of-the-art dynamical climate forecasts over Europe. The potential improvement generated by these kinds of postprocessing methods is naturally limited by the strength of association between the circulation patterns and the local climate parameters. We propose a statistical technique to retrieve atmospheric patterns&amp;mdash;targeted teleconnections&amp;mdash;that are maximally predictive for a given climate parameter in a region of choice so as to optimize the potential of statistical postprocessing. The possibility of improvement in forecast skill induced by the implementation of targeted teleconnections is demonstrated in four applications.</p>
</abstract>
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