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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2025-3662</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Ensemble forecasts of isolated and compound wind and precipitation extremes in Europe using HC-SWG (v3.1) and MA-SWG (v1.1) Stochastic Weather Generators</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Krouma</surname>
<given-names>Meriem</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0617-9956</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Messori</surname>
<given-names>Gabriele</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2032-5211</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Swedish Centre for Impacts of Climate Extremes (climes), Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Department of Meteorology and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>18</day>
<month>11</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2025</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>33</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2025 Meriem Krouma</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2025</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-3662/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-3662/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-3662/egusphere-2025-3662.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-3662/egusphere-2025-3662.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Ensemble forecasts of extreme wind and precipitation provide essential information for early warning systems. In this study, we present two forecasting approaches that combine a stochastic weather generator (SWG) with atmospheric circulation analogs to forecast extreme precipitation and extreme wind speed in Europe. The first approach, which we term HC-SWG, combines ECMWF ensemble reforecasts with the stochastic weather generator to forecast extreme precipitation at different locations in Europe. The second approach, which we term MA-SWG, uses multivariate atmospheric analogs as input to the SWG to forecast extreme 10 m wind speed. These ensemble forecasts of precipitation and wind speed extremes display a higher forecast skill than ECMWF numerical reforecasts at lead times up to 10 days, using station data as the ground truth. As a final step, we evaluate the forecasted and observed frequencies of simultaneous and sequential precipitation and wind speed extremes in Europe, which are a class of high-impact compound events. Our forecasts yield comparable occurrence frequencies to the observations.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="33"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Horizon 2020 Framework Programme</funding-source>
<award-id>ERC 948309</award-id>
<award-id>European Union’s H2020 research and innovation programme</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs2">
<funding-source>Vetenskapsrådet</funding-source>
<award-id>grant no. 2022-06599</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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