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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2025-3586</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Multi-site learning for hydrological uncertainty prediction: the case of quantile random forests</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>El Ouahabi</surname>
<given-names>Taha-Abderrahman</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0009-0000-7613-3086</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Bourgin</surname>
<given-names>François</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2820-7260</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Perrin</surname>
<given-names>Charles</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8552-1881</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Andréassian</surname>
<given-names>Vazken</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7124-9303</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Université Paris-Saclay, INRAE, HYCAR, Antony, France</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>30</day>
<month>07</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2025</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>30</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2025 Taha-Abderrahman El Ouahabi et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2025</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-3586/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-3586/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-3586/egusphere-2025-3586.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-3586/egusphere-2025-3586.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>To improve hydrological uncertainty estimation, recent studies have explored machine learning (ML)-based post-processing approaches that enable both enhanced predictive performance and hydrologically informed probabilistic streamflow predictions. Among these, random forests (RF) and their probabilistic extension, quantile random forests (QRF), are increasingly used for their balance between interpretability and performance. However, the application of QRF in regional post-processing settings remains unexplored. In this study, we develop a hydrologically informed QRF post-processor trained in a multi-site setting and compare its performance against a locally (at-site) trained QRF using probabilistic evaluation metrics. The QRF framework leverages simulations and state variables from the GR6J hydrological model, along with readily available catchment descriptors, to predict daily streamflow uncertainty. Our results show that the regional QRF approach is beneficial for hydrological uncertainty estimation, particularly in catchments where local information is insufficient. The findings highlight that multi-site learning enables effective information transfer across hydrologically similar catchments and is especially advantageous for high-flow events. However, the selection of appropriate catchment descriptors is critical to achieving these benefits.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="30"/></counts>
</article-meta>
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