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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2025-3550</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>BuRNN (v1.0): A Data-Driven Fire Model</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Lampe</surname>
<given-names>Seppe</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7907-4496</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Gudmundsson</surname>
<given-names>Lukas</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Kraft</surname>
<given-names>Basil</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8491-2730</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Hantson</surname>
<given-names>Stijn</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4607-9204</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Kelley</surname>
<given-names>Douglas</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1413-4969</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Humphrey</surname>
<given-names>Vincent</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2541-6382</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Le Saux</surname>
<given-names>Bertrand</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7162-6746</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Chuvieco</surname>
<given-names>Emilio</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5618-4759</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff7">
<sup>7</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Thiery</surname>
<given-names>Wim</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5183-6145</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Department of Water and Climate, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>School of Sciences and Engineering, Universidad del Rosario, Bogotá, Colombia</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Zürich, Switzerland</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff6">
<label>6</label>
<addr-line>Φ-lab, European Space Agency, Frascati, Italy</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff7">
<label>7</label>
<addr-line>Environmental Remote Sensing Research Group, Universidad de Alcalá, Alcalá de Henares, Spain</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>01</day>
<month>09</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2025</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>45</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2025 Seppe Lampe et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2025</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-3550/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-3550/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-3550/egusphere-2025-3550.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-3550/egusphere-2025-3550.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Fires play an important role in the Earth system but remain complex phenomena that are challenging to model numerically. Here, we present the first version of BuRNN, a data-driven model simulating burned area on a global 0.5&amp;deg; &amp;times; 0.5&amp;deg; grid with a monthly time resolution. We trained Long Short-Term Memory networks to predict satellite-based burned area (GFED5) from a range of climatic, vegetation and socio-economic parameters. We employed a region-based cross-validation strategy to account for the high spatial autocorrelation in our data. BuRNN outperforms the process-based fire models participating in ISIMIP3a on a global scale across a wide range of metrics. Regionally, BuRNN outperforms almost all models across a set of benchmarking metrics in all regions. However, in the African savannah regions and Australia burned area is underestimated, leading to a global underestimation of total area burned. Through eXplainable AI (XAI) we unravel the difference in regional drivers of burned area in our models, showing that the presence/absence of bare ground and C4 grasses along with the fire weather index have the largest effects on our predictions of burned area. Lastly, we used BuRNN to reconstruct global burned area for 1901&amp;ndash;2019 and compare the simulations against independent long-term historical fire observation databases in five countries and the EU. Our approach highlights the potential of machine learning to improve burned area simulations and our understanding of past fire behaviour.</p>
</abstract>
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<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Fonds Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek</funding-source>
<award-id>11M7725N</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs2">
<funding-source>HORIZON EUROPE European Research Council</funding-source>
<award-id>101076909</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs3">
<funding-source>European Space Agency</funding-source>
<award-id>4000126706/19/I-NB</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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