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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2025-3469</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>New observations confirm the progressive acidification in the Mozambique Channel</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Metzl</surname>
<given-names>Nicolas</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Lo Monaco</surname>
<given-names>Claire</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Tribollet</surname>
<given-names>Aline</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Ternon</surname>
<given-names>Jean-François</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Chevallier</surname>
<given-names>Frédéric</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4327-3813</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Gehlen</surname>
<given-names>Marion</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9688-0692</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Laboratoire LOCEAN/IPSL, Sorbonne Université-CNRS-IRD-MNHN, Paris, 75005, France</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>MARBEC, Université de Montpellier, CNRS, Ifremer, IRD, 34203 Sète, France</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Laboratoire LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay Gif-sur-Yvette, 91191, France</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>29</day>
<month>07</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2025</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>23</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2025 Nicolas Metzl et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2025</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-3469/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-3469/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-3469/egusphere-2025-3469.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-3469/egusphere-2025-3469.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>New observations obtained in 2021 and 2022 are presented and used to investigate the trend of the carbonate system (including pH and aragonite saturation state, &amp;Omega;&lt;sub&gt;ar&lt;/sub&gt;) in the southern sector of the Mozambique Channel. Using historical and new data in April&amp;ndash;May we observed an acceleration of the acidification ranging from -0.012 TS.decade&lt;sup&gt;-1&lt;/sup&gt; in 1963&amp;ndash;1995 to -0.027 (&amp;plusmn;0.003) TS.decade&lt;sup&gt;-1&lt;/sup&gt; in 1995&amp;ndash;2022. Result from a neural network (FFNN) model for all seasons also suggests faster pH trend in recent decades, -0.011 TS.decade&lt;sup&gt;-1&lt;/sup&gt; over 1985&amp;ndash;1995 and -0.018 TS.decade&lt;sup&gt;-1&lt;/sup&gt; over 1995&amp;ndash;2022. In May 2022 we estimated &amp;Omega;&lt;sub&gt;ar&lt;/sub&gt; of 3.49, about 0.3 lower than observed in May 1963 (&amp;Omega;&lt;sub&gt;ar&lt;/sub&gt; = 3.86). The lowest &amp;Omega;&lt;sub&gt;ar&lt;/sub&gt; value of 3.23 was evaluated from the FFNN model in September 2023 that corresponds to the hypothetical critical threshold value (3.25) for coral reefs. In 2025 a marine heat wave was observed in this region (sea surface temperature up to 30 &amp;deg;C) and data from a BGC-Argo float indicate that sea surface pH was low in January 2025 (pH = 7.95) whereas War was low in Mach 2025 (&amp;Omega;&lt;sub&gt;ar&lt;/sub&gt; = 3.2). A projection of the C&lt;sub&gt;T&lt;/sub&gt; concentrations based on observed anthropogenic CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; in subsurface water and emissions scenario, suggests that a risky level for corals (&amp;Omega;&lt;sub&gt;ar&lt;/sub&gt; &amp;lt; 3) could be reached as soon as year 2034.</p>
</abstract>
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