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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2025-3394</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Radiative forcing due to shifting southern African fire regimes</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Eames</surname>
<given-names>Tom</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1548-5867</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Schutgens</surname>
<given-names>Nick</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9805-6384</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Ioannidis</surname>
<given-names>Eleftherios</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>van der Velde</surname>
<given-names>Ivar R.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>van Gerrevink</surname>
<given-names>Max J.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5202-1263</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Vernooij</surname>
<given-names>Roland</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>van der Werf</surname>
<given-names>Guido R.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9042-8630</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Department of Earth Sciences, Faculty of Science, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>SRON Space Research Organisation Netherlands, Leiden, The Netherlands</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Meteorology and Air Quality Group, Wageningen University &amp; Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>now at: Research &amp; Development Satellite Observations, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, The Netherlands</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>29</day>
<month>07</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2025</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>49</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2025 Tom Eames et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2025</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-3394/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-3394/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-3394/egusphere-2025-3394.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-3394/egusphere-2025-3394.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Landscape fires emit climate-influencing greenhouse gases and aerosols. The vast majority of landscape fire emissions originate from tropical savannas, especially in Africa. During the fire season, the climatic and fuel conditions change, and fires burning later in the dry season consume drier vegetation and occur in drier weather conditions than earlier fires. Previous studies have shown that it is possible to reduce emissions of some greenhouse gases (CH&lt;sub&gt;4&lt;/sub&gt; and N&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;O) by using &amp;lsquo;prescribed&amp;rsquo; fires, i.e. deliberate burning in the early dry season. In this study we examine the climate effect of (deliberately) changing fire regimes beyond CH&lt;sub&gt;4&lt;/sub&gt; and N&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;O, including aerosols and other short-lived species, CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;, and changes to surface albedo. We find that in general shifting burning earlier in a single fire season results in global negative climate forcing (cooling) of around &amp;ndash;0.001 to &amp;ndash;0.002 W&lt;em&gt;m&lt;/em&gt;&lt;sup&gt;&amp;minus;2&lt;/sup&gt; (long-term) or &amp;ndash;0.006 (short-term) W&lt;em&gt;m&lt;/em&gt;&lt;sup&gt;&amp;minus;2&lt;/sup&gt;, compared to less than -0.0005 W&lt;em&gt;m&lt;/em&gt;&lt;sup&gt;&amp;minus;2&lt;/sup&gt; if only considering CH&lt;sub&gt;4&lt;/sub&gt; and N&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;O. CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; emissions reduction through emission factor changes and burned area reduction is the largest contributing factor, though especially in the short term albedo effects are also substantial. Shifting fire activity towards the late fire season generally produces a positive climate forcing (warming) of a smaller magnitude. We find too that some localities within our study area have a potentially disproportionately large impact on our results, such that the efficacy of any fire regime change with respect to climate forcing must be carefully considered on a local scale.</p>
</abstract>
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<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek</funding-source>
<award-id>2017 Ammodo Science Award for Natural Sciences</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
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