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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2025-3357</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Storylines of extreme summer temperatures in southern South America</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Suli</surname>
<given-names>Solange</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4720-3895</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Barriopedro</surname>
<given-names>David</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6476-944X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>García-Herrera</surname>
<given-names>Ricardo</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3845-7458</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Collazo</surname>
<given-names>Soledad</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7785-2998</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Squintu</surname>
<given-names>Antonello</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9011-4455</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Rusticucci</surname>
<given-names>Matilde</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Institute of Geosciences (IGEO), Spanish National Research Council – Complutense University of Madrid (CSIC-UCM),  Madrid Spain</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Complutense University of Madrid, Faculty of Physical Sciences, Physics of the Earth and Astrophysics, Madrid, Spain</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>University of Buenos Aires, Faculty of Exact and Natural Sciences, Department of Atmospheric and Ocean Sciences, Buenos Aires, Argentina</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>CMCC Foundation - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Bologna, Italy</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>29</day>
<month>07</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2025</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>24</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2025 Solange Suli et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2025</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-3357/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-3357/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-3357/egusphere-2025-3357.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-3357/egusphere-2025-3357.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Understanding the sources of uncertainty in future climate extremes is crucial for developing effective regional adaptation strategies. This study examines projections of summer absolute maximum temperature (TXx) over four regions of southern South America: northern, central-eastern, central Argentina, and southern areas. We analyse simulations from 26 global climate models and apply a storyline approach to explore how different climate drivers combine to shape future changes in TXx for the late 21&lt;sup&gt;st&lt;/sup&gt; century (2070&amp;ndash;2099).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The storylines are based on changes in key physical drivers, including mid-tropospheric circulation, regional soil moisture, sea surface temperature in Ni&amp;ntilde;o 3.4 region, and the intensity of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone. A multi-linear regression framework reveals that the dominant drivers of the projected warming in TXx vary substantially across regions. In northern areas, warming is primarily influenced by remote drivers such as tropical sea surface temperatures and changes in the South Atlantic Convergence Zone. Central-eastern and central Argentina exhibit mixed local and remote influences, while southern regions are predominantly affected by local drivers (soil drying and atmospheric circulation changes).&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Together, these drivers explain up to 56 % of the inter-model spread in future projections of TXx. However, their ability to account for the uncertainty in percentile-based indices and regional heatwave characteristics is more limited, suggesting that complex heat metrics may be influenced by additional processes.</p>
</abstract>
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