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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">1812-0822</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2025-3287</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Using surface drifters to characterise near-surface ocean dynamics in the southern North Sea: a data-driven approach</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Medina-Rubio</surname>
<given-names>Jimena</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0009-0007-6324-8993</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Nussbaum</surname>
<given-names>Madlene</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6808-8956</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>van den Bremer</surname>
<given-names>Ton S.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>van Sebille</surname>
<given-names>Erik</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2041-0704</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Department of Physics, Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research (IMAU), Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Faculty of Geosciences, Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>22</day>
<month>07</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2025</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>35</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2025 Jimena Medina-Rubio et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2025</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-3287/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-3287/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-3287/egusphere-2025-3287.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-3287/egusphere-2025-3287.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>The large size of traditional drifters limits their ability to mimic the transport of buoyant objects at the ocean surface, which are subject to complex interactions among direct wind drag, fast-moving surface currents, and wave-induced transport. To better capture these dynamics, we track the trajectories of 12 novel, ultra-thin surface drifters deployed in the southern North Sea over 68 days. We adopt a data-driven approach to model drifter velocity using hydrodynamic and atmospheric data, applying both a linear leeway parameterisation and two machine learning models: random forest and support vector regression. Machine learning model-agnostic interpretation techniques reveal that tidal forcing predominantly drives zonal motion, whereas wind is the main driver in the meridional direction in this region. Notably, the wind exhibits a saturation effect, and its contribution to explaining the variance of the drifter velocity decreases at higher speeds. In trajectory prediction experiments, we find that machine learning models, particularly random forest, outperform linear models, with the latter achieving comparable accuracy only at short time scales. Using a hybrid approach and deriving a non-linear function of the wind from machine learning interpretable methods to include in the leeway parameterisation significantly improves the model prediction of the drifter trajectory.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="35"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek</funding-source>
<award-id>VI.C.222.025</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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