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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2025-3159</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Reviews and syntheses: Process-based modeling of the CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;:CH&lt;sub&gt;4&lt;/sub&gt; production ratio is important for predicting future Arctic methane emissions</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Moser</surname>
<given-names>Marius</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0009-0000-3386-935X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Kaiser</surname>
<given-names>Lara</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7880-1145</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Brovkin</surname>
<given-names>Victor</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6420-3198</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Beer</surname>
<given-names>Christian</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5377-3344</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Department of Earth System Sciences, Universität Hamburg, 20146, Hamburg, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, 20146, Hamburg, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability, Universität Hamburg, 20146, Hamburg, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>18</day>
<month>07</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2025</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>22</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2025 Marius Moser et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2025</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-3159/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-3159/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-3159/egusphere-2025-3159.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-3159/egusphere-2025-3159.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Thawing permafrost in the Arctic threatens to potentially release large amounts of decomposed organic matter as CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; or CH&lt;sub&gt;4&lt;/sub&gt; to the atmosphere. Predicting the ratio of emitted CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; to CH&lt;sub&gt;4&lt;/sub&gt; is imperative for reliable future projections. Here, we review the recent literature concerning methanogenesis, and its current representation in both land surface models (LSMs) and the state-of-the-art process-based methane models. We found that the key processes, required to capture the dynamics of the CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;:CH&lt;sub&gt;4&lt;/sub&gt; production ratio, are: fermentation, hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis, and acetoclastic methanogenesis. Commonly discussed linked processes are Fe(III)-reduction and homoacetogenesis. Environmental factors influencing these processes, as identified in the literature, are: temperature, pH, water table position and alternative electron acceptors. While modern process-based methane models account for most of these factors and processes, the same is not true for the simplified methane formulations in many LSMs, which often opt for pre-set parameters that define a constant share of methane production from anaerobic decomposition. This static approach stands in opposition to the growing amount of lab and in-situ data, which suggest a high degree of spatio-temporal variability concerning this ratio, thus preventing its accurate prediction in a changing future Arctic. The challenge lies in upscaling the data as the environmental factors are barely quantified at the pan-Arctic scale. Additionally, there remains the important challenge of how to model and parameterize the temperature dependence of the individual underlying processes. Going forward, these challenges need to be overcome in order to reliably project the CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;:CH&lt;sub&gt;4&lt;/sub&gt; production ratio and methane emissions on larger scales. This will require a more process-based approach of methanogenesis in LSMs, for which we suggest a baseline concept here.</p>
</abstract>
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<award-id>03F0931A and 03F0931F</award-id>
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