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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2025-3007</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Improving Forecasts of Persistent Contrails through Ice Deposition Adjustments</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Dedekind</surname>
<given-names>Zane</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8861-9438</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Korolev</surname>
<given-names>Alexei</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3877-8419</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Milbrandt</surname>
<given-names>Jason Aaron</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Meteorological Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, Ontario, Canada</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>14</day>
<month>07</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2025</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>35</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2025 Zane Dedekind et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2025</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-3007/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-3007/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-3007/egusphere-2025-3007.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-3007/egusphere-2025-3007.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Aviation-induced clouds, especially persistent contrails, contribute significantly to anthropogenic climate forcing, often surpassing the short-term impact of aviation CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; emissions. These clouds form in ice-supersaturated regions, where they trap longwave radiation and warm the climate. On 25 November 2023, widespread ice-supersaturated layers over eastern Canada and the USA led to extensive contrail formation, confirmed by GOES-16 satellite imagery and ground-based photography. Atmospheric conditions were characterized using ceilometer data from Toronto Pearson Airport and radiosonde soundings.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;High-resolution simulations were conducted using the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) model with the Predicted Particle Properties (P3) microphysics scheme. The Contrail Avoidance Tool (CoAT), incorporating Schmidt-Appleman Criteria and a wake vortex model, simulated persistent contrail formation and properties. Sensitivity tests adjusting ice depositional growth rates evaluated their impact on ice supersaturation. Results indicate that the control (CNTL) simulation underestimated relative humidity over ice (RH&lt;sub&gt;i&lt;/sub&gt;), a common limitation where moisture is depleted too rapidly. Reduced depositional growth rates improved RH&lt;sub&gt;i&lt;/sub&gt; forecasts and contrail-forming regions. However, GEM-CoAT underestimated contrail depth and ice number concentration in very shallow high-RH&lt;sub&gt;i&lt;/sub&gt; layers. CoAT simulations also revealed that SAC alone is insufficient, as wake vortex dynamics can induce adiabatic warming, leading to ice particle sublimation.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Further analysis examined contrail formation for two aircraft types (A321 and B747). The B747 generated deeper wake vortices, enhancing adiabatic heating and reducing contrail ice number concentrations by 27 % in sensitivity simulations and 78 % in the CNTL simulations. Adjusting depositional growth rates allowed GEM-CoAT to accurately simulate contrail formation and persistence.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="35"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Transport Canada</funding-source>
<award-id>STF22-010</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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