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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
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<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2025-2993</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Assessing the spatial correlation of potential compound flooding in the United States</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Li</surname>
<given-names>Huazhi</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9589-2918</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Jane</surname>
<given-names>Robert A.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Eilander</surname>
<given-names>Dirk</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0951-8418</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Enríquez</surname>
<given-names>Alejandra R.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Haer</surname>
<given-names>Toon</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Ward</surname>
<given-names>Philip J.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Department of Civil, Environmental and Construction Engineering, National Center for Integrated Coastal Research, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL 32816, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Deltares, Delft, the Netherlands</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>School of Geosciences, College of Arts &amp; Sciences, University of South Florida, St Petersburg, FL 33701, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>07</day>
<month>07</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2025</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>26</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2025 Huazhi Li et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2025</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-2993/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-2993/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-2993/egusphere-2025-2993.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-2993/egusphere-2025-2993.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>When coastal and river floods occur concurrently or in close succession, they can cause a compound flood with significantly higher impacts. While our understanding of compound flooding has improved over the past decade, no studies to date have assessed the spatial correlation of compound flooding. To address this gap, we develop a framework that captures dependence between coastal total water level and river discharge across a set of locations along the U.S. coastline. Using 41 years of observed data from 41 station combinations, we stochastically model 10,000 years of spatially-joint events of extreme sea level and river discharge based on their dependence structure and cooccurrence rate. We define potential compound flooding as events in which both drivers exceed their respective 99&lt;sup&gt;th &lt;/sup&gt;percentile thresholds. Results based on our simulated large event set show that the U.S. West coast shows high spatial correlation of potential compound flooding. Among all three coasts, the West coast has the highest frequency of widespread potential compound flooding, with around 50 % of compound events arising at multiple locations simultaneously. We identify two clusters with mutually high joint occurrence rates of simultaneous compound events on this coast, namely 1) Charleston &amp;ndash; Cresent City &amp;ndash; North Spit, and 2) Santa Monica &amp;ndash; Los Angeles &amp;ndash; La Jolla. Widespread compound events are less frequent on the East coast where approximately 30 % of potential compound flooding may affect multiple locations. Moderate spatial dependence is observed in the central region and weaker spatial dependence for the remaining locations on this coast. In contrast, the Gulf coast shows the weakest spatial correlation, where over 82 % of compound events only affect single locations. Our findings highlight the importance of accounting for spatial dependence in compound flood assessments. Our large set of stochastic spatially-joint events can be used as boundary conditions for the hydrologic-hydraulic models to simulate the surface inundation and further assess risks of compound flooding in low-lying coastal and estuarine areas.</p>
</abstract>
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<funding-source>China Scholarship Council</funding-source>
<award-id>202007720035</award-id>
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<award-group id="gs2">
<funding-source>Horizon 2020</funding-source>
<award-id>101003276</award-id>
<award-id>820712</award-id>
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<award-group id="gs3">
<funding-source>Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek</funding-source>
<award-id>vi.vidi.221s.081</award-id>
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