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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2025-290</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Modelling the effectiveness of GLOF DRM measures &amp;ndash; a case study from the Ala-Archa valley, Kyrgyz Republic</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Niggli</surname>
<given-names>Laura</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9212-3187</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Frey</surname>
<given-names>Holger</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0705-3570</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Allen</surname>
<given-names>Simon</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Alybaeva</surname>
<given-names>Nazgul</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8587-9725</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Huggel</surname>
<given-names>Christian</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9299-2665</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Moldobekov</surname>
<given-names>Bolot</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Zaginaev</surname>
<given-names>Vitalii</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>University of Zurich, Department of Geography, Switzerland</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>University of Geneva, Switzerland</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Central-Asian Institute for Applied Geosciences (CAIAG), Kyrgyz Republic</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>University of Central Asia, Mountain Societies Research Institute, Kyrgyz Republic</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>25</day>
<month>02</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2025</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>24</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2025 Laura Niggli et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2025</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-290/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-290/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-290/egusphere-2025-290.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-290/egusphere-2025-290.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Disaster risk management (DRM) for glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) is critical due to the increasing risk posed by GLOFs to downstream communities and infrastructure. However, the effectiveness of DRM measures remains insufficiently understood, which hinders effective and target-oriented decision-making in GLOF DRM. Existing research predominantly focuses on hazard aspects, with few scientific studies modelling the impacts of DRM measures comprehensively. In order to fill this gap, this study assesses the effectiveness of three different DRM measures for GLOFs in the Ala-Archa catchment, Kyrgyz Republic. Using numerical modelling, we map and assess the effect of three DRM measures: lake lowering, a deflection dam, and a retention basin and compare it to the current baseline hazard map. We develop a hazard reduction score for comparison of the measures and evaluate their effectiveness based on cost and benefit considerations. This study proposes a conceptual framework and methodology that can guide the management of GLOF and debris flow risks in similar contexts globally.</p>
</abstract>
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