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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2025-2850</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Predicting and correcting the influence of boundary conditions in regional inverse analyses</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Nesser</surname>
<given-names>Hannah</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6778-037X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Bowman</surname>
<given-names>Kevin W.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8659-1117</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Thill</surname>
<given-names>Matthew D.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Varon</surname>
<given-names>Daniel J.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3207-5731</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Randles</surname>
<given-names>Cynthia A.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Tewari</surname>
<given-names>Ashutosh</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Cardoso-Saldaña</surname>
<given-names>Felipe J.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6359-8076</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Reidy</surname>
<given-names>Emily</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Maasakkers</surname>
<given-names>Joannes D.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8118-0311</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Jacob</surname>
<given-names>Daniel J.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Harvard University School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Cambridge, MA, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>ExxonMobil Technology and Engineering Company, Annandale, NJ, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>SRON Space Research Organization Netherlands, Leiden, the Netherlands</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>now at: Scepter, Inc., San Francisco, CA, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff6">
<label>6</label>
<addr-line>now at: Amazon Supply Chain Optimization Technologies, Seattle, WA, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>02</day>
<month>07</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2025</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>19</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2025 Hannah Nesser et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2025</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-2850/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-2850/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-2850/egusphere-2025-2850.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-2850/egusphere-2025-2850.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Regional inverse analyses of atmospheric trace gas observations quantify gridded two-dimensional surface fluxes by fitting the observations to simulated concentrations from a chemical transport model (CTM), usually by Bayesian optimization regularized by a gridded prior flux estimates. Regional inversions rely on the specification of background concentrations given by the boundary conditions (BCs) at the edges of the inversion domain, but biases in the BCs propagate to biases in the optimized fluxes. We develop a theoretical framework to explain how errors in the BCs influence the optimized fluxes as a function of the prior and observing system error statistics and of CTM transport. We derive a preview metric to estimate the BC-induced errors before conducting an inversion to support domain specification and a diagnostic metric to accurately quantify these errors after solving the inversion. We compare two methods to correct BC biases as part of an inversion, either directly by optimizing BC concentrations (boundary method) or indirectly by correcting grid cell fluxes outside the domain of interest (buffer method). We demonstrate that the boundary method is generally more accurate, physically grounded, and computationally tractable.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="19"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>National Aeronautics and Space Administration Postdoctoral Program</funding-source>
<award-id>N/A</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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