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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">2698-4024</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2025-2556</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Signal, noise and skill in sub-seasonal forecasts: the role of teleconnections</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Karpechko</surname>
<given-names>Alexey Yu.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Butler</surname>
<given-names>Amy H.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3632-0925</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Vitart</surname>
<given-names>Frederic</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, 00101, Finland</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Chemical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, 80305, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, Reading, RG2 9AX, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>30</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2025</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>30</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2025 Alexey Yu. Karpechko et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2025</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-2556/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-2556/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-2556/egusphere-2025-2556.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-2556/egusphere-2025-2556.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>A set of relaxation experiments with a forecast model is used to explore the influence of tropical and stratospheric teleconnections on forecast skill, variability of forecast ensemble mean (EM) and ensemble spread (ES) in the wintertime Northern Hemisphere at sub-seasonal timescales. The influence is diagnosed by comparing the relaxation experiments, which relax the temperature and wind fields in specific regions to observed values, with the free running (control) experiment. During weeks 3&amp;ndash;6 the tropical relaxation increases the forecast skill for sea level pressure (SLP) mostly south of 50&amp;deg; N but also over the North Atlantic, Northern Europe and eastern Canada. The stratospheric relaxation improves the skill mostly in high latitudes, over Europe, and North Atlantic. Skill improvements are considerably smaller for surface temperature and total precipitation, suggesting a smaller role of the teleconnections in their predictability. The increases in skill are generally associated with increased variability of EM, considered to represent the predictable signal, and reduced ES representing noise. However, this does not happen in all areas where the skill is increased. In high latitudes, where the stratospheric impacts are strongest, the EM variability does not increase in the stratospheric relaxation experiments consistently with increases in skill, implying that EM does not reflect the predictable signal. We estimate that the ensemble size available in the experiments (11 members) is not enough to make it possible to extract signal from noise, and that larger ensembles (typically 20&amp;ndash;50 members or even more depending on area and variable) are required to study sub-seasonal predictability associated with the teleconnections in mid- and high latitudes, including windows for forecast opportunities.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="30"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Research Council of Finland</funding-source>
<award-id>355792</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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