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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2025-2458</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>High resolution monthly precipitation isotope estimates across Australia from machine learning</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Falster</surname>
<given-names>Georgina</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8567-7413</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Abramowitz</surname>
<given-names>Gab</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4205-001X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Hobeichi</surname>
<given-names>Sanaa</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Hughes</surname>
<given-names>Cath</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1474-402X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Treble</surname>
<given-names>Pauline</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1969-8555</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Abram</surname>
<given-names>Nerilie J.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1246-2344</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff7">
<sup>7</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff8">
<sup>8</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff9">
<sup>9</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Bird</surname>
<given-names>Michael I.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1801-8703</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff10">
<sup>10</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff11">
<sup>11</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Cauquoin</surname>
<given-names>Alexandre</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4620-4696</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff12">
<sup>12</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Dixon</surname>
<given-names>Bronwyn</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff13">
<sup>13</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Drysdale</surname>
<given-names>Russell</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7867-031X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff13">
<sup>13</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Jin</surname>
<given-names>Chenhui</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff14">
<sup>14</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff15">
<sup>15</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Munksgaard</surname>
<given-names>Niels</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff10">
<sup>10</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Proemse</surname>
<given-names>Bernadette</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff16">
<sup>16</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Tyler</surname>
<given-names>Jonathan J.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Werner</surname>
<given-names>Martin</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6473-0243</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff17">
<sup>17</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Tadros</surname>
<given-names>Carol</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>School of Physics, Chemistry and Earth Sciences, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide 5005, SA, Australia</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>The ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, The Australian National University, Canberra 2601, ACT, Australia</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Climate Change Research Centre, UNSW Sydney, Kensington 2052, NSW, Australia</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>The ARC Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century, UNSW Sydney, Kensington 2052, NSW, Australia</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>ANSTO, Lucas Heights 2234, NSW, Australia</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff6">
<label>6</label>
<addr-line>School of Biological, Earth, and Environmental Sciences, UNSW Sydney, Kensington 2052, NSW, Australia</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff7">
<label>7</label>
<addr-line>Research School of Earth Sciences, The Australian National University, Canberra 2601, ACT, Australia</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff8">
<label>8</label>
<addr-line>The ARC Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century, The Australian National University, Canberra 2601, ACT, Australia</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff9">
<label>9</label>
<addr-line>The Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science, The Australian National University, Canberra 2601, ACT, Australia</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff10">
<label>10</label>
<addr-line>College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Cairns 4878, Queensland, Australia</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff11">
<label>11</label>
<addr-line>ARC Centre of Excellence for Indigenous and Environmental Histories and Futures, James Cook University, Cairns 4878, Queensland, Australia</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff12">
<label>12</label>
<addr-line>Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, Kashiwa 277-8574, Chiba, Japan</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff13">
<label>13</label>
<addr-line>School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne 3053, Victoria, Australia</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff14">
<label>14</label>
<addr-line>ARC Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century, Monash University, Melbourne 3800, Victoria, Australia</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff15">
<label>15</label>
<addr-line>School of Earth Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University, Melbourne 3800, Victoria, Australia</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff16">
<label>16</label>
<addr-line>School of Natural Sciences, University of Tasmania, Hobart 7001, Tasmania, Australia</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff17">
<label>17</label>
<addr-line>Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Alfred Wegener Institute, Bremerhaven 27515, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>11</day>
<month>07</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2025</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>40</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2025 Georgina Falster et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2025</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-2458/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-2458/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-2458/egusphere-2025-2458.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-2458/egusphere-2025-2458.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>The stable isotopic composition of precipitation (&amp;delta;&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt;H&lt;sub&gt;P&lt;/sub&gt;, &amp;delta;&lt;sup&gt;18&lt;/sup&gt;O&lt;sub&gt;P&lt;/sub&gt;; &apos;water isotopes&apos;) is a powerful tool for tracking water through the atmosphere, as well as fingerprinting land-surface water masses and identifying water cycle biases in isotope-enabled climate models. Water isotopes also underpin our understanding of multi-decadal to multi-centennial water cycle variability via their retrieval from palaeoclimate archives. Water isotopes thereby increase our understanding of past and present &amp;ndash; and hence future &amp;ndash; water cycle variability. Understanding the drivers of spatial and temporal water isotope variability is a critical first step in applying these tracers for a better understanding of the water cycle. However, water isotope observations are sparse in both space and time. Here we develop and apply a machine learning (random forest) approach to predict spatially continuous monthly &amp;delta;&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt;H&lt;sub&gt;P&lt;/sub&gt; and &amp;delta;&lt;sup&gt;18&lt;/sup&gt;O&lt;sub&gt;P&lt;/sub&gt; across the Australian continent at 0.25&amp;deg; resolution from 1962&amp;ndash;2023. We train the random forest models on monthly &amp;delta;&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt;H&lt;sub&gt;P&lt;/sub&gt; (n = 5199) and &amp;delta;&lt;sup&gt;18&lt;/sup&gt;O&lt;sub&gt;P&lt;/sub&gt; (n = 5217) observations from 60 sites across Australia. We also predict the deuterium excess of precipitation (&lt;em&gt;dxs&lt;/em&gt;&lt;sub&gt;P&lt;/sub&gt;, defined as &amp;delta;&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt;H&lt;sub&gt;P&lt;/sub&gt; &amp;minus; 8*&amp;delta;&lt;sup&gt;18&lt;/sup&gt;O&lt;sub&gt;P&lt;/sub&gt;). Out-of-sample &amp;delta;&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt;H&lt;sub&gt;P&lt;/sub&gt; and &amp;delta;&lt;sup&gt;18&lt;/sup&gt;O&lt;sub&gt;P&lt;/sub&gt; prediction skill is high both geographically and temporally. Skill is slightly lower for the secondary parameter &lt;em&gt;dxs&lt;/em&gt;&lt;sub&gt;P&lt;/sub&gt;, likely reflecting the larger reliance of spatio-temporal &lt;em&gt;dxs&lt;/em&gt;&lt;sub&gt;P&lt;/sub&gt; variability on moisture source conditions. The random forest models accurately capture both the seasonal cycle of precipitation isotopic variability and long-term annual-mean precipitation isotopic variability across the continent, and outperform estimates from an isotope-enabled atmosphere general circulation model over an equivalent time period. We show that spatio-temporal variability in precipitation amount, precipitation intensity, and surface temperature are particularly important for monthly &amp;delta;&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt;H&lt;sub&gt;P&lt;/sub&gt; and &amp;delta;&lt;sup&gt;18&lt;/sup&gt;O&lt;sub&gt;P&lt;/sub&gt; variations across the continent, with local surface pressure also important for &lt;em&gt;dxs&lt;/em&gt;&lt;sub&gt;P&lt;/sub&gt;. Drivers of site-level &amp;delta;&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt;H&lt;sub&gt;P&lt;/sub&gt;, &amp;delta;&lt;sup&gt;18&lt;/sup&gt;O&lt;sub&gt;P&lt;/sub&gt;, and &lt;em&gt;dxs&lt;/em&gt;&lt;sub&gt;P&lt;/sub&gt; are more varied. Overall, the new random forest modelled dataset reveals clear spatial and temporal variability in &amp;delta;&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt;H&lt;sub&gt;P&lt;/sub&gt;, &amp;delta;&lt;sup&gt;18&lt;/sup&gt;O&lt;sub&gt;P&lt;/sub&gt;, and &lt;em&gt;dxs&lt;/em&gt;&lt;sub&gt;P&lt;/sub&gt; across the Australian continent over the past decades &amp;ndash; providing a robust foundation for hydrology, ecology, and palaeoclimate research, as well as an accessible framework for predicting water isotope values in other locations.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="40"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Australian Research Council</funding-source>
<award-id>DE250100071</award-id>
<award-id>CE170100023</award-id>
<award-id>CE230100012</award-id>
<award-id>CE170100015</award-id>
<award-id>FL140100044</award-id>
<award-id>FT230100648</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs2">
<funding-source>Australian Institute of Nuclear Science and Engineering</funding-source>
<award-id>ALNGRA2205</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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<back>
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</article>