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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2025-2300</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Investigating the impact of meteorology and emissions on PM&lt;sub&gt;2.5&lt;/sub&gt; and PM&lt;sub&gt;10&lt;/sub&gt; in Delhi using machine learning</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Verma</surname>
<given-names>Shubhi</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Rafiuddin</surname>
<given-names>Mohammad</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8858-0235</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Suryanarayanan</surname>
<given-names>Uday</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Tiwari</surname>
<given-names>Shikhar</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Puravankara</surname>
<given-names>Rishikesh</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Council on Energy, Environment and Water, New Delhi, 110070, India</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Our Common Air</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>19</day>
<month>05</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2025</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>25</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2025 Shubhi Verma et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2025</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-2300/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-2300/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-2300/egusphere-2025-2300.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-2300/egusphere-2025-2300.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Delhi is among the most polluted megacities in the world. Despite a range of interventions, the city&amp;rsquo;s PM&lt;sub&gt;2.5&lt;/sub&gt; and PM&lt;sub&gt;10&lt;/sub&gt; levels exceed Indian and WHO standards several times. India launched the ambitious National Clean Air Programme (NCAP) to reduce air pollution in its most polluted cities, including Delhi, in 2019. While several studies have looked at the trends of pollutant concentrations in Delhi, very few have adjusted for the effects of meteorology. In this study, we perform weather normalisation or deweathering using a machine learning model to analyse the impact of meteorology and anthropogenic emissions on PM&lt;sub&gt;2.5&lt;/sub&gt; and PM&lt;sub&gt;10&lt;/sub&gt; concentrations in Delhi. The study reveals a statistically insignificant decline in deweathered PM&lt;sub&gt;2.5&lt;/sub&gt; and PM&lt;sub&gt;10&lt;/sub&gt; between 2019 and 2024 across seasons. Also, the average deweathered PM&lt;sub&gt;2.5&lt;/sub&gt; and PM&lt;sub&gt;10&lt;/sub&gt; concentrations almost double (PM&lt;sub&gt;2.5&lt;/sub&gt;: 64.8 &amp;mu;g/m&lt;sup&gt;3&lt;/sup&gt; vs 144.3 &amp;mu;g/m&lt;sup&gt;3&lt;/sup&gt; and 142.4; PM&lt;sub&gt;10&lt;/sub&gt;: 138.1 &amp;mu;g/m&lt;sup&gt;3&lt;/sup&gt; vs 261.8 &amp;mu;g/m&lt;sup&gt;3&lt;/sup&gt; and 273.1 &amp;mu;g/m&lt;sup&gt;3&lt;/sup&gt;, respectively) in post-monsoon and winter months (October to November and December to February, respectively) compared to those in monsoon (June to September). Meteorological effects reduce PM&lt;sub&gt;2.5&lt;/sub&gt; concentrations in summer (March to May) and monsoon seasons by 3.4 &amp;mu;g/m&lt;sup&gt;3&lt;/sup&gt; and 25.4 &amp;mu;g/m&lt;sup&gt;3&lt;/sup&gt;, respectively, on average. However, they worsen PM&lt;sub&gt;10&lt;/sub&gt; concentrations during summer by 7.7 &amp;mu;g/m&lt;sup&gt;3&lt;/sup&gt;, but reduce them by 25.4 &amp;mu;g/m&lt;sup&gt;3&lt;/sup&gt; during the monsoon season, on average. They also worsen the concentrations of PM&lt;sub&gt;2.5&lt;/sub&gt; and PM&lt;sub&gt;10&lt;/sub&gt; by 10.7 &amp;mu;g/m&lt;sup&gt;3&lt;/sup&gt; and 18.2 &amp;mu;g/m&lt;sup&gt;3&lt;/sup&gt; respectively, in post-monsoon. Meteorological effects play a role in reducing PM&lt;sub&gt;10&lt;/sub&gt; concentrations by 7.8 &amp;mu;g/m&lt;sup&gt;3&lt;/sup&gt; and increasing PM&lt;sub&gt;2.5&lt;/sub&gt; by 17 &amp;mu;g/m&lt;sup&gt;3&lt;/sup&gt; in winter. Additionally, the effect of meteorology shows no statistically significant trends across years for both pollutants, across seasons. Weekly averaged deweathered PM&lt;sub&gt;2.5&lt;/sub&gt; &amp;ndash; CO ratio analysis between 2019 and 2024 reveals two distinct spikes in the ratio associated with the post-monsoon stubble burning in the states surrounding Delhi and biomass burning for heating during winter months.</p>
</abstract>
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