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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2025-2186</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>A Transformer-based agent model of GEOS-Chem v14.2.2 for informative prediction of PM&lt;sub&gt;2.5&lt;/sub&gt; and O&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt; levels to future emission scenarios: TGEOS v1.0</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Li</surname>
<given-names>Dehao</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Jin</surname>
<given-names>Jianbing</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2868-9343</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Wang</surname>
<given-names>Guoqiang</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2979-3510</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Pang</surname>
<given-names>Mijie</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9773-0488</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Liao</surname>
<given-names>Hong</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>State Key Laboratory of Climate System Prediction and Risk Management, Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric  Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and  Equipment Technology, School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, Jiangsu, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>School of Mathematics, Physics and Statistics, Shanghai University of Engineering Science, Shanghai, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Delft Institute of Applied Mathematics, Delft University of Technology, Delft, the Netherlands</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>28</day>
<month>05</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2025</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>30</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2025 Dehao Li et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2025</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-2186/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-2186/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-2186/egusphere-2025-2186.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-2186/egusphere-2025-2186.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Efficient and informative air quality modeling in future emission scenarios is vital for effective formulation of emission reduction policies. Traditional chemical transport models (CTMs) struggle with the computational demands required for timely predictions. While advanced response surface models (RSMs) were proposed and offered much faster estimates than CTMs, they fall short in providing comprehensive estimates of future air quality due to their simplistic and inflexible structural frameworks. Additionally, current RSMs often have difficulty simultaneously accounting for varying emission variables and the effects of regional transport, which limits their applicability and undermines prediction accuracy. In this study, an informative future air quality prediction model &quot;TGEOS v1.0&quot; based on the Transformer framework is developed as an efficient GEOS-Chem agent model. TGEOS is able to swiftly and accurately conduct online predictions of probability distributions for PM&lt;sub&gt;2.5&lt;/sub&gt; and O&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt; concentrations under future emission scenarios and capture potential extreme pollution events. The model incorporates sectoral emissions of up to 26 distinct species as well as the impacts of regional emissions and meteorology on pollutant concentrations, enhancing its versatility and predictive accuracy. The spatial and probability distributions predicted by TGEOS are in good agreement with GEOS-Chem, with the correlation coefficients for PM&lt;sub&gt;2.5&lt;/sub&gt; and O&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt; exceed 0.97 and 0.96, respectively. Notably, TGEOS achieves remarkable computational efficiency, executing one-year predictions in approximately 2.51 seconds. Compared with other machine learning models, TGEOS based on Transformer framework showcases superior performance, underscoring the potential of the Transformer framework in air quality modeling.</p>
</abstract>
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