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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2025-2168</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Developing a Coastal Hazard Prediction System in Ice-Infested Waters, Part 1: High-Resolution Regional Wave Modeling in The Estuary and Gulf of St. Lawrence</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Baudry</surname>
<given-names>Jeremy</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8016-8396</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Dumont</surname>
<given-names>Dany</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4107-1799</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Didier</surname>
<given-names>David</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Bernatchez</surname>
<given-names>Pascal</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Dugas</surname>
<given-names>Sebastien</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8402-1981</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Institut des sciences de la mer, Université du Québec à Rimouski, Québec G5L 3A1 Canada</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Laboratoire d’études des littoraux nordiques et arctiques, Université du Québec à Rimouski, Québec G5L 3A1 Canada</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Laboratoire de dynamique et de gestion intégrée des zones côtières, Université du Québec à Rimouski, Québec G5L 3A1 Canada</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>22</day>
<month>07</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2025</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>35</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2025 Jeremy Baudry et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2025</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-2168/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-2168/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-2168/egusphere-2025-2168.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-2168/egusphere-2025-2168.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>This study is the first of a two-part paper that summarizes the development of a prototype coastal hazard prediction system providing short-term (+48 h) forecasts of the total water level (TWL) at 50 m resolution for the province of Quebec, Eastern Canada. In this first part, the implementation of the offshore wave model component of the system, which is a regional 1 km-resolution WAVEWATCH III&amp;trade;(WW3) configuration for the Estuary and Gulf of St. Lawrence (EGSL), is presented and discussed. The configuration is forced by high resolution atmosphere, ocean and sea ice forecasts provided by Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) and includes a state-of-the-art parameterization of wave propagation and attenuation in sea ice that has been tuned with observations from the EGSL. Performances are assessed against wave data collected over a two-year period during which the forecasting system was running operationally, and against historical storm data using a model hindcast. Results demonstrate reasonable forecast skills both for normal and extreme wave conditions during ice-free periods with errors ranging from 15 % to 31 % of the mean wave height. However, when sea ice is present, performances are drastically reduced, primarily due to inaccuracies in the predicted ice fields at spatial scales over which wave energy typically dissipates in sea ice.</p>
</abstract>
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