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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2025-2002</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Projected climate change in Fennoscandia &amp;ndash; and its relation to ensemble spread and global trends</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Strandberg</surname>
<given-names>Gustav</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2689-9360</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Thomasson</surname>
<given-names>August</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0009-0005-8107-3950</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Bärring</surname>
<given-names>Lars</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Kjellström</surname>
<given-names>Erik</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6495-1038</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Sahlin</surname>
<given-names>Michael</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Wilcke</surname>
<given-names>Renate</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8787-5090</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Nikulin</surname>
<given-names>Grigory</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4226-8713</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, SE-601 76, Sweden</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research, Linköping University, Linköping SE-581 83, Sweden</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Department of Physics, Lund University, Lund, SE-223 64, Sweden</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>28</day>
<month>05</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2025</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>23</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2025 Gustav Strandberg et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2025</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-2002/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-2002/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-2002/egusphere-2025-2002.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-2002/egusphere-2025-2002.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>The need for information about climate change is constantly increasing. This information is usually based on climate model data &amp;mdash; data that often have systematic biases. Furthermore, there are questions about how climate model ensembles are affected by the choice of models and emission scenarios. Here, we aim to give a description of climate change in Sweden and neighbouring countries, as well as a discussion on how local climate change relates to global warming. We present climate change projections based on bias adjusted Euro-CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment) regional climate model data centred over Sweden. Global warming results in higher temperature, more warm days and fewer cold days in Sweden. The regional climate models capture the signal of the driving global models. The choice of emission scenario has minimal effect on the calculation of mean climate change at a global warming level of 2 degrees. This implies that it would be safe to mix emission scenarios in calculations of global warming levels, as long as mean values are concerned. Moreover, the differences in local and global warming rates seem to decrease with time, suggesting that climate change in Sweden may currently be at its fastest.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="23"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>VINNOVA</funding-source>
<award-id>2021-02456</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs2">
<funding-source>Horizon 2020 Framework Programme</funding-source>
<award-id>101157094</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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</article>