<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<!DOCTYPE article PUBLIC "-//NLM//DTD Journal Publishing DTD v3.0 20080202//EN" "https://jats.nlm.nih.gov/nlm-dtd/publishing/3.0/journalpublishing3.dtd">
<article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" article-type="research-article" specific-use="SMUR" dtd-version="3.0" xml:lang="en">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2025-1793</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>The role of the tropical carbon balance in determining the large atmospheric CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; growth rate in 2023</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Feng</surname>
<given-names>Liang</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Palmer</surname>
<given-names>Paul</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1487-0969</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Smallman</surname>
<given-names>Luke</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0835-1003</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Xiao</surname>
<given-names>Jingfeng</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Cristofanelli</surname>
<given-names>Paulo</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5666-9131</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Hermansen</surname>
<given-names>Ove</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Lee</surname>
<given-names>John</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Labuschagne</surname>
<given-names>Casper</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7125-0029</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff7">
<sup>7</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Montaguti</surname>
<given-names>Simonetta</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0009-0003-1180-918X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Noe</surname>
<given-names>Steffen</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1514-1140</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff8">
<sup>8</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Platt</surname>
<given-names>Stephen</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Ren</surname>
<given-names>Xinrong</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9974-1666</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff9">
<sup>9</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Steinbacher</surname>
<given-names>Martin</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7195-8115</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff10">
<sup>10</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Xueref-Remy</surname>
<given-names>Irene</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2339-3383</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff11">
<sup>11</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH9 3FF, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>National Centre for Earth Observation, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH9 3FF, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Earth Systems Research Center, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH 03824, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>National Research Council of Italy – Institute for Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, I-40129 Bologna, Italy</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>Norwegian Institute for Air Research, Instituttveien 18, 2007 Kjeller, Norway</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff6">
<label>6</label>
<addr-line>School of Forestry, CRSF, University of Maine, ME, 04469, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff7">
<label>7</label>
<addr-line>South African Weather Service, Cape Point research station, Stellenbosch 7599, South Africa</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff8">
<label>8</label>
<addr-line>Institute of Forestry and Engineering, Estonian University of Life Sciences, 51014 Tartu, Estonia</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff9">
<label>9</label>
<addr-line>NOAA Air Resources Laboratory Atmospheric Sciences and Modeling Division, College Park, MD 20740, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff10">
<label>10</label>
<addr-line>Laboratory for Air Pollution / Environmental Technology, Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology (Empa), 8600 Duebendorf, Switzerland</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff11">
<label>11</label>
<addr-line>Institut Méditerranéen de Biodiversité et d’Ecologie marine et continentale, Aix-Marseille Univ, Avignon Univ, CNRS, IRD, 13397 Marseille, France</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>06</day>
<month>05</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2025</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>26</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2025 Liang Feng et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2025</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-1793/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-1793/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-1793/egusphere-2025-1793.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-1793/egusphere-2025-1793.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>The global annual mean atmospheric CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; growth rate in 2023 was one of the highest since records began in 1958, comparable to values recorded during previous major El Ni&amp;ntilde;o events. We do not fully understand this anomalous growth rate, although a recent study highlighted a role for boreal North American forest fires. We use a Bayesian inverse method to interpret global-scale atmospheric CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; data from the NASA Orbiting Carbon Observatory. The resulting &lt;em&gt;a posteriori&lt;/em&gt; CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; flux estimates reveal that from 2022 to 2023 the biggest changes in CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; fluxes of net biosphere exchange (NBE) &amp;ndash; for which positive values denote a flux to the atmosphere &amp;ndash; were over the land tropics. We find that the largest NBE increase is over eastern Brazil, with small increases over southern Africa and Southeast Asia. We also find significant increases over southeast Australia, Alaska, and western Russia. A large NBE increase over boreal North America, due to fires, is driven by our &lt;em&gt;a priori&lt;/em&gt; inventory, informed by independent data.&amp;nbsp; The largest NBE reductions are over western Europe, USA, and central Canada. Our NBE estimates are consistent with gross primary production estimates inferred from satellite observations of solar induced fluorescence and with satellite observations of vegetation greenness. We find that warmer temperatures in 2023 explain most of the NBE change over eastern Brazil, with hydrological changes more important elsewhere across the tropics. Our results suggest that ongoing environmental degradation of the Amazon is now playing a substantial role in increasing the global atmospheric CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; growth rate.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="26"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>National Centre for Earth Observation</funding-source>
<award-id>NE/R016518/1</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs2">
<funding-source>UK Space Agency</funding-source>
<award-id>MicroCarb pre-launch science preparation</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
<body/>
<back>
</back>
</article>