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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2025-1717</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>An updated microphysical model for particle activation in contrails: the role of volatile plume particles</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Ponsonby</surname>
<given-names>Joel</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2730-4947</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Teoh</surname>
<given-names>Roger</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Kärcher</surname>
<given-names>Bernd</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0278-4980</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Stettler</surname>
<given-names>Marc</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2066-9380</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Institute for Atmospheric Physics, DLR Oberpfaffenhofen, Weßling, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>19</day>
<month>05</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2025</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>37</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2025 Joel Ponsonby et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2025</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-1717/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-1717/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-1717/egusphere-2025-1717.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-1717/egusphere-2025-1717.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Global simulations suggest the mean annual contrail-cirrus net radiative forcing is comparable to that of aviation&amp;rsquo;s accumulated CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; emissions. However, these simulations assume non-volatile particulate matter (nvPM) and ambient particles are the only source of condensation nuclei, omitting activation of volatile particulate matter (vPM) formed in the nascent plume. Here, we extend a microphysical framework to include vPM and benchmark this against a parcel model (pyrcel) modified to treat contrail formation. We explore how the apparent emission index (EI) of contrail ice crystals (AEI&lt;sub&gt;ice&lt;/sub&gt;) scales with EI&lt;sub&gt;nvPM&lt;/sub&gt;, vPM properties, ambient temperature and aircraft/fuel characteristics. We find model agreement within 20 % in the previously defined &amp;ldquo;soot-poor&amp;rdquo; regime. However, discrepancies increase non-linearly (up to 60 %) in the &amp;ldquo;soot-rich&amp;rdquo; regime, due to differing treatment of droplet growth. Both models predict that in the &amp;ldquo;soot-poor&amp;rdquo; regime, AEI&lt;sub&gt;ice&lt;/sub&gt; approaches 10&lt;sup&gt;16 &lt;/sup&gt;kg&lt;sup&gt;-1&lt;/sup&gt; for low ambient temperatures (&amp;lt; 210 K) and sulphur-rich vPM, which is comparable to estimates in the &amp;ldquo;soot-rich&amp;rdquo; regime. Moreover, our sensitivity analyses suggest that the point of transition between the &amp;ldquo;soot-poor&amp;rdquo; and &amp;ldquo;soot-rich&amp;rdquo; regimes is a dynamic threshold on EI&lt;sub&gt;nvPM&lt;/sub&gt; that ranges from 10&lt;sup&gt;13 &lt;/sup&gt;kg&lt;sup&gt;-1&lt;/sup&gt; &amp;ndash; 10&lt;sup&gt;16 &lt;/sup&gt;kg&lt;sup&gt;-1&lt;/sup&gt; and depends sensitively on ambient temperature and vPM properties, underlining the need for vPM emission characterisation measurements. We suggest that existing contrail simulations omitting vPM activation may underestimate AEI&lt;sub&gt;ice&lt;/sub&gt;, especially for flights powered by engines with very low EI&lt;sub&gt;nvPM&lt;/sub&gt; (&amp;lt;10&lt;sup&gt;13 &lt;/sup&gt;kg&lt;sup&gt;-1&lt;/sup&gt;). Under these conditions, AEI&lt;sub&gt;ice&lt;/sub&gt; might be reduced by reducing fuel sulphur content, minimising organic emissions and/or avoiding cooler regions of the atmosphere.</p>
</abstract>
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<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council</funding-source>
<award-id>EP/S023593/1</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
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