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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2025-1572</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Assessing the predictive capability of several machine learning algorithms to forecast snow avalanches using numerical weather prediction model in eastern Canada</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Gauthier</surname>
<given-names>Francis</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Laliberté</surname>
<given-names>Jacob</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Meloche</surname>
<given-names>Francis</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0009-0001-5884-5597</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Laboratoire de géomorphologie et de gestion des risques en montagnes (LGGRM), Département de Biologie, Chimie et  Géographie, Université du Québec à Rimouski, Canada</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Center for Nordic studies, Université Laval, Québec, Canada</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Horos Géomatique, Québec, Canada</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>10</day>
<month>04</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2025</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>28</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2025 Francis Gauthier et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2025</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-1572/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-1572/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-1572/egusphere-2025-1572.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-1572/egusphere-2025-1572.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Snow avalanches are a serious threat to traffic in the northern Gasp&amp;eacute;sie region. In this study, we look at the development of different forecasting models using machine learning (ML), based on snow avalanche events recorded by Quebec&apos;s Ministry of Transportation (MTMQ), meteorological data from the Cap-Madeleine station and Environment Canada weather forecast data. The models were trained and tested on &lt;em&gt;Train&lt;/em&gt; and &lt;em&gt;Test&lt;/em&gt; datasets with meteorological and weather forecasts recorded at the Meteorological Station. Unsupervised learning models were compared to expert models where only 4 variables were selected with avalanche expertise in mind, yielding similar results in prediction. The ML models were then tested in a realistic forecasting context over the year 2019 with weather data from a forecasting station (Hindcast) and with forecast data over 24 h and 48 h (GEMLAM 24 h). The LR and RF models show that model performance can match or exceed that of current forecasting tools, enhancing hazard anticipation while maintaining a user-friendly framework suitable for real-time application. In conclusion, recommendations on forecast-based operational procedures are proposed.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="28"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada</funding-source>
<award-id>RGPIN-2016-05839</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs2">
<funding-source>Ministère des Transports</funding-source>
<award-id>R798.1</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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