<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<!DOCTYPE article PUBLIC "-//NLM//DTD Journal Publishing DTD v3.0 20080202//EN" "https://jats.nlm.nih.gov/nlm-dtd/publishing/3.0/journalpublishing3.dtd">
<article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" article-type="research-article" specific-use="SMUR" dtd-version="3.0" xml:lang="en">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2025-1330</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>A barycenter-based approach for the multi-model ensembling of subseasonal forecasts</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Le Coz</surname>
<given-names>Camille</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Tantet</surname>
<given-names>Alexis</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3871-6587</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Flamary</surname>
<given-names>Rémi</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Plougonven</surname>
<given-names>Riwal</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3310-8280</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>LMD/IPSL, École Polytechnique, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, ENS, PSL Research University, Sorbonne Université, CNRS, Palaiseau, France</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>CMAP, Ecole Polytechnique, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, CNRS, Palaiseau, France</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>28</day>
<month>05</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2025</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>33</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2025 Camille Le Coz et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2025</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-1330/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-1330/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-1330/egusphere-2025-1330.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-1330/egusphere-2025-1330.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Ensemble forecasts and their combination are examined from the perspective of probability spaces. Manipulating ensemble forecasts as discrete probability distributions, multi-model ensemble (MME) forecasts are reformulated as barycenters of these distributions. We consider two barycenters, each defined with respect to a different distance metric: the &lt;em&gt;L&lt;/em&gt;&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; barycenter, which correspond to the traditional pooling method, and the Wasserstein barycenter, which better preserves certain geometric properties of the input ensemble distributions.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As a proof of concept, we apply the &lt;em&gt;L&lt;/em&gt;&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; and Wasserstein barycenters to the combination of four models from the Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) prediction project database. Their performance is evaluated for the prediction of weekly 2&amp;thinsp;m temperature, 10&amp;thinsp;m wind speed, and 500&amp;thinsp;hPa geopotential height over European winters. By construction, both barycenter-based MMEs have the same ensemble mean, but differ in their representation of the forecast uncertainty. Notably, the &lt;em&gt;L&lt;/em&gt;&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; barycenter has a larger ensemble spread, making it more prone to under-confidence. While both methods perform similarly on average in terms of the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS), the Wasserstein barycenter performs better more frequently.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="33"/></counts>
</article-meta>
</front>
<body/>
<back>
</back>
</article>