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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2025-1206</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Machine learning improves seasonal mass balance prediction for unmonitored glaciers</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Sjursen</surname>
<given-names>Kamilla Hauknes</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7110-2843</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Bolibar</surname>
<given-names>Jordi</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>van der Meer</surname>
<given-names>Marijn</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7604-4494</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Andreassen</surname>
<given-names>Liss Marie</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6494-4252</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Biesheuvel</surname>
<given-names>Julian Peter</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Dunse</surname>
<given-names>Thorben</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4362-4265</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Huss</surname>
<given-names>Matthias</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2377-6923</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff7">
<sup>7</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Maussion</surname>
<given-names>Fabien</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3211-506X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff8">
<sup>8</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff9">
<sup>9</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Rounce</surname>
<given-names>David R.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4481-4191</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff10">
<sup>10</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Tober</surname>
<given-names>Brandon</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9010-1646</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff10">
<sup>10</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Department of Civil Engineering and Environmental Sciences, Western Norway University of Applied Sciences (HVL),  Sogndal, Norway</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, IRD, G-INP, Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement, Grenoble, France</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Laboratory of Hydraulics, Hydrology, and Glaciology (VAW), ETH Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow, and Landscape Research (WSL), Sion, Switzerland</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff6">
<label>6</label>
<addr-line>Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE), Oslo, Norway</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff7">
<label>7</label>
<addr-line>Department of Geosciences, University of Fribourg, Fribourg, Switzerland</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff8">
<label>8</label>
<addr-line>Bristol Glaciology Centre, School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff9">
<label>9</label>
<addr-line>Department of Atmospheric and Cryospheric Sciences, University of Innsbruck, Innsbruck, Austria</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff10">
<label>10</label>
<addr-line>Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>31</day>
<month>03</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2025</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>39</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2025 Kamilla Hauknes Sjursen et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2025</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-1206/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-1206/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-1206/egusphere-2025-1206.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-1206/egusphere-2025-1206.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Glacier evolution models based on temperature-index approaches are commonly used to assess hydrological impacts of glacier changes. However, in large-scale applications, these models lack calibration frameworks that efficiently leverage sparse high-resolution observations, limiting their ability to resolve seasonal mass changes. Machine learning approaches can potentially address this limitation by learning relationships from sparse data that are transferable in space and time, including to unmonitored glaciers. Here, we present the Mass Balance Machine (MBM), a data-driven mass balance model based on the XGBoost architecture, designed to provide accurate and high spatio-temporal resolution regional-scale reconstructions of glacier mass balance. We trained and tested MBM using a dataset of approximately 4000 seasonal and annual point mass balance measurements from 32 glaciers across heterogeneous climate settings in mainland Norway, spanning from 1962 to 2021. To assess the advantage MBM&apos;s generalisation capabilities, we compared its predictions on independent test glaciers at various spatio-temporal scales with those of regional-scale simulations from three glacier evolution models. MBM successfully predicted annual and seasonal point mass balance on the test glaciers (RMSE of 0.59&amp;ndash;1.00 m w.e. and bias of -0.01&amp;ndash;0.04 m w.e.). On seasonal mass balance, MBM outperformed the other models across spatial scales, reducing RMSE by up to 46 % and 25 % on glacier-wide winter and summer mass balance, respectively. Our results demonstrate the capability of machine learning models to generalise across glaciers and climatic settings from relatively sparse mass balance data, highlighting their potential for a wide range of applications.</p>
</abstract>
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