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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2025-1154</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>The Impact of Convection-Permitting Rainfall on the Dryland Water Balance</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Blake</surname>
<given-names>George</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0890-6192</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Michaelides</surname>
<given-names>Katerina</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7996-0543</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Kendon</surname>
<given-names>Elizabeth</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Cuthbert</surname>
<given-names>Mark</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6721-022X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Singer</surname>
<given-names>Michael</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8 BSS, United Kingdom</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Met Office Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Cardiff University, Cardiff, CF10 3AT, United Kingdom</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Earth Research Institute, University of California Santa Barbara, CA 93106, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>16</day>
<month>04</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2025</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>41</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2025 George Blake et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2025</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-1154/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-1154/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-1154/egusphere-2025-1154.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2025-1154/egusphere-2025-1154.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>In drylands, rainfall is typically delivered during short-lived and localised convective storms, the characteristics of which determine how water is partitioned into different terrestrial stores. However, rainfall datasets used in hydrological modelling and assessments of water resources are typically derived from climate models that are too coarse to represent convective processes occurring at scales smaller than the model. In this paper, we quantify the impact of climate model representation of convection on the simulated water balance at four locations in the Horn of Africa: a humid site in the Ethiopian Highlands, a semi-arid site in southern Kenya, an arid site in eastern Ethiopia, and a hyper-arid site in northern Somalia. We benchmark the novel pan-Africa convection-permitting climate model (CP4A) and its parameterised counterpart (P25) against high-resolution satellite-derived gridded datasets of rainfall (IMERG) and PET (hPET). The comparison shows that explicitly resolving convection improves the characterisation of rainfall frequency, intensity, and the relative contribution of low vs high-intensity rainfall to annual totals. We also demonstrate that the representation of convection can impact model PET. However, differences in PET between CP4A and P25 are more muted relative to rainfall, and both can capture seasonal and diurnal PET dynamics. To establish how climate model representation of convection can impact hydrology, we then ran a series of one-dimensional hydrological model experiments along an aridity gradient across the Horn of Africa using Hydrus 1-D, where at each of our four sites, Hydrus was driven by rainfall and PET from CP4A and P25 (and hPET). The &amp;lsquo;drizzle&amp;rsquo; bias in P25 means that when rainfall is propagated through Hydrus, wetting fronts are more restricted to upper soil layers, resulting in higher evaporative losses, lower soil moisture, and bottom drainage in drylands. While at our humid site in the Ethiopian Highlands, there are minimal differences in hydrological outcomes; in drylands, the more intense and intermittent rainfall in CP4A means surface runoff is up to ten times higher and bottom drainage up to 25 times higher. We conclude that dryland hydrology is highly sensitive to climate model representation of convection and that forcing hydrological model projections with convectional climate models that parameterise the average effects of convection risks underestimating future crop health, groundwater availability, or flood risk.</p>
</abstract>
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<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>UK Research and Innovation</funding-source>
<award-id>NE/S007504/1</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
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