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<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2024-4040</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Assessment of machine learning-based approaches to improve sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting of precipitation in Senegal</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Faye</surname>
<given-names>Dioumacor</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9653-1791</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>de Andrade</surname>
<given-names>Felipe M.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Suárez-Moreno</surname>
<given-names>Roberto</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6389-7060</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Wane</surname>
<given-names>Dahirou</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Hegglin</surname>
<given-names>Michaela I.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Dieng</surname>
<given-names>Abdou L.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Kaly</surname>
<given-names>François</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Lguensat</surname>
<given-names>Redouane</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0226-9057</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff7">
<sup>7</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Gaye</surname>
<given-names>Amadou T.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3688-1351</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Laboratoire Physique de l’Atmosphère et de l’Océan-Siméon Fongang (LPAO-SF), Ecole Supérieure Polytechnique (ESP),  Université Cheikh Anta Diop de Dakar, Dakar-Fann 5085, Dakar, Senegal</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>National Institute for Space Research, Cachoeira Paulista, São Paulo, Brazil</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Geophysical Institute and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research University of Bergen 5020, Bergen, Norway</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Institute of Climate and Energy Systems - Stratosphere (ICE-4), Forschungszentrum Jülich, Wilhelm-Johnen-Straße, 52428,  Jülich, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, RG6 6BB, Reading, United Kingdom</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff6">
<label>6</label>
<addr-line>Department of Computer Science, UFR of Sciences and Technologies, Université Iba Der THIAM de, Thiès, 21000, Thiès,  Senegal</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff7">
<label>7</label>
<addr-line>Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, IRD, 4 place de Jussieu, Paris, France</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>28</day>
<month>02</month>
<year>2025</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2025</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>32</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2025 Dioumacor Faye et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2025</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2024-4040/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2024-4040/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2024-4040/egusphere-2024-4040.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2025/egusphere-2024-4040/egusphere-2024-4040.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>In Senegal, the West African monsoon (WAM) season is characterized by pronounced subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) rainfall fluctuations in response to complex interactions between large-scale atmospheric and oceanic variability patterns and mesoscale convective systems. Indeed, the general circulation models (GCMs) used in the development of S2S forecasting systems often struggle to represent the mechanisms yielding WAM predictability. This study explores the potential of machine learning (ML) approaches to improve S2S precipitation forecasting in Senegal. We evaluate a set of ML models, including ridge regression, linear regression, random forest, support vector machine, Adaboost, and multilayer perceptron for S2S forecasting of precipitation during the monsoon season. To this aim, we use a combination of high-resolution global precipitation estimates from ground and satellite observations, along with atmospheric and oceanic reanalysis products. Our methodology relies on a non-filtering approach to extract significant S2S signals as predictors, enabling real-time application. We demonstrate that integrating different predictor variables from a range of atmospheric and oceanic fields significantly enhances prediction skill. Notably, the ridge regression model outperforms state-of-the-art GCM-derived S2S predictions. The study highlights the potential for developing operational S2S forecasting systems for West African precipitation using ML techniques to complement GCM-based forecast systems, offering valuable tools for climate risk anticipation and water resource management. Such ML-based systems not only provide skillful predictions but are also computationally more efficient compared to GCMs, and can be extended to diverse climatic zones.</p>
</abstract>
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