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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2024-2460</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Biogeochemical versus biogeophysical temperature effects of historical land-use change in CMIP6</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Amali</surname>
<given-names>Amali A.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9023-2950</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Schwingshackl</surname>
<given-names>Clemens</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4048-3011</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Ito</surname>
<given-names>Akihiko</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5265-0791</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Barbu</surname>
<given-names>Alina</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Delire</surname>
<given-names>Christine</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6114-3211</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Peano</surname>
<given-names>Daniele</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6975-4447</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Lawrence</surname>
<given-names>David M.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2968-3023</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Wårlind</surname>
<given-names>David</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6257-0338</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Robertson</surname>
<given-names>Eddy</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff7">
<sup>7</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Davin</surname>
<given-names>Edouard L.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3322-9330</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff8">
<sup>8</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff9">
<sup>9</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff10">
<sup>10</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Shevliakova</surname>
<given-names>Elena</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff11">
<sup>11</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Harman</surname>
<given-names>Ian N.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff12">
<sup>12</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Vuichard</surname>
<given-names>Nicolas</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff13">
<sup>13</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Miller</surname>
<given-names>Paul A.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Lawrence</surname>
<given-names>Peter J.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Ziehn</surname>
<given-names>Tilo</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9873-9775</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff14">
<sup>14</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Hajima</surname>
<given-names>Tomohiro</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff15">
<sup>15</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Brovkin</surname>
<given-names>Victor</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6420-3198</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff16">
<sup>16</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff17">
<sup>17</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Zhang</surname>
<given-names>Yanwu</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff18">
<sup>18</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Arora</surname>
<given-names>Vivek K.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff19">
<sup>19</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Pongratz</surname>
<given-names>Julia</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0372-3960</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff16">
<sup>16</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Department of Geography, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Munich, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Graduate School of Life and Agricultural Sciences, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, CNRM (Université de Toulouse, CNRS, Meteo-France), 42 av. Coriolis, 31057 Toulouse, France</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>CMCC Foundation - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, Bologna, Italy</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>DML: NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff6">
<label>6</label>
<addr-line>Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Lund, Sweden</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff7">
<label>7</label>
<addr-line>Met Office, Fitzroy Road, Exeter, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff8">
<label>8</label>
<addr-line>Wyss Academy for Nature, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff9">
<label>9</label>
<addr-line>Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff10">
<label>10</label>
<addr-line>Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff11">
<label>11</label>
<addr-line>National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory, 201 Forrestal Road, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff12">
<label>12</label>
<addr-line>CSIRO Environment, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Canberra, ACT, Australia</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff13">
<label>13</label>
<addr-line>Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, LSCE-IPSL (CEA-CNRS-UVSQ), Université Paris-Saclay 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff14">
<label>14</label>
<addr-line>CSIRO Environment, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Aspendale, VIC, Australia</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff15">
<label>15</label>
<addr-line>Research Institute for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama 236-0001, Japan</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff16">
<label>16</label>
<addr-line>Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff17">
<label>17</label>
<addr-line>Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability, Universität Hamburg, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff18">
<label>18</label>
<addr-line>CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff19">
<label>19</label>
<addr-line>Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victora, British Columbia, Canada</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>27</day>
<month>08</month>
<year>2024</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2024</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>55</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2024 Amali A. Amali et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2024</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2024/egusphere-2024-2460/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2024/egusphere-2024-2460/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2024/egusphere-2024-2460/egusphere-2024-2460.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2024/egusphere-2024-2460/egusphere-2024-2460.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Anthropogenic land-use change (LUC) substantially impacts climate dynamics, primarily through modifications in the surface biogeophysical (BGP) and biogeochemical (BGC) fluxes, which alter the exchange of energy, water, and carbon with the atmosphere. Despite the established significance of both the BGP and BGC effects, their relative contribution to climate change remains poorly quantified. In this study, we leveraged data from an unprecedented number of Earth system models (ESMs) of the latest generation that contributed to the Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP), under the auspices of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Our analysis of BGP effects indicates a range of global annual near-surface air temperature changes across ESMs due to historical LUC, from a cooling of -0.23 &amp;deg;C to a warming of 0.14 &amp;deg;C, with a multi-model mean and spread of -0.03&amp;plusmn;0.10 &amp;deg;C under present-day conditions relative to the pre-industrial era. Notably, the BGP effects indicate warming at high latitudes. Still, there is a discernible cooling pattern between 30&amp;deg; N and 60&amp;deg; N, extending across large landmasses from the Great Plains of North America to the Northeast Plain of Asia. The BGC effect shows substantial land carbon losses, amounting to -122&amp;plusmn;96 GtC over the historical period, with decreased vegetation carbon pools driving the losses in nearly all analysed ESMs. Based on the transient climate response to cumulative emissions (TCRE), we estimate that LUC-induced carbon emissions result in a warming of approximately 0.20&amp;plusmn;0.14 &amp;deg;C, which is consistent with previous estimates. When the BGP and BGC effects are taken together, our results suggest that the net effect of LUC on historical climate change has been to warm the climate. To understand the regional drivers &amp;mdash;and thus potential levers to alter the climate&amp;mdash;, we show the contribution of each grid cell to LUC-induced global temperature change, as a warming contribution over the tropics and subtropics with a nuanced cooling contribution over the mid-latitudes. Our findings indicate that historically, the BGC temperature effects dominate the BGP temperature effects at the global scale. However, they also reveal substantial discrepancies across models in the magnitude, directional impact, and regional specificity of LUC impacts on global temperature and land carbon dynamics. This underscores the need for further improvement and refinement in model simulations, including the consideration and implementation of land-use data and model-specific parameterisations, to achieve more accurate and robust estimates of the climate effect of LUC.</p>
</abstract>
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</article-meta>
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