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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2024-2171</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Hybrid model estimate of the ocean carbon sink from 1959 to 2022</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Terhaar</surname>
<given-names>Jens</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9377-415X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>24</day>
<month>07</month>
<year>2024</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2024</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>27</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2024 Jens Terhaar</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2024</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2024/egusphere-2024-2171/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2024/egusphere-2024-2171/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2024/egusphere-2024-2171/egusphere-2024-2171.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2024/egusphere-2024-2171/egusphere-2024-2171.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>The ocean takes up around one quarter of anthropogenically emitted carbon and is projected to remain the main carbon sink once global temperatures stabilize. Despite the importance of this carbon sink, estimates of its strength over the last decades remain uncertain, mainly due to too few and unevenly sampled observations and shortcomings in ocean models and their setups. Here, I present a hybrid model estimate of the annually averaged ocean carbon sink from 1959 to 2022 by combining the higher-frequency variability of the annually averaged estimates of the carbon sink from ocean models in hindcast mode and the long-term trends from fully coupled Earth System Models. Ocean models in hindcast mode reproduce the observed climate variability, but their spin-up strategy likely leads to too weak long-term trends, whereas fully coupled Earth System Models simulate their own internal climate variability but better represent long-term trends. By combining these two modelling approaches, I keep the strength of each approach and remove the respective weaknesses. This hybrid model estimate of the ocean carbon sink from 1959 to 2022 is 125&amp;plusmn;8 Pg C and is similar in magnitude but 70 % less uncertain than the best estimate of the Global Carbon Budget.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="27"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung</funding-source>
<award-id>ArcticECO (#PZ00P2_209044 )</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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