<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<!DOCTYPE article PUBLIC "-//NLM//DTD Journal Publishing DTD v3.0 20080202//EN" "https://jats.nlm.nih.gov/nlm-dtd/publishing/3.0/journalpublishing3.dtd">
<article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" article-type="research-article" specific-use="SMUR" dtd-version="3.0" xml:lang="en">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2024-2068</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>HIDRA3: a robust deep-learning model for multi-point ensemble sea level forecasting</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Rus</surname>
<given-names>Marko</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Mihanović</surname>
<given-names>Hrvoje</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Ličer</surname>
<given-names>Matjaž</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2304-2505</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Kristan</surname>
<given-names>Matej</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4252-4342</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Slovenian Environment Agency, Office for Meteorology, Hydrology and Oceanography, Ljubljana, Slovenia</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Faculty of Computer and Information Science, Visual Cognitive Systems Lab, University of Ljubljana, Ljubljana, Slovenia</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>National Institute of Biology, Marine Biology Station, Piran, Slovenia</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Institute of Oceanography and Fisheries, Split, Croatia</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>These authors contributed equally to this work.</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>29</day>
<month>08</month>
<year>2024</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2024</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>21</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2024 Marko Rus et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2024</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2024/egusphere-2024-2068/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2024/egusphere-2024-2068/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2024/egusphere-2024-2068/egusphere-2024-2068.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2024/egusphere-2024-2068/egusphere-2024-2068.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Accurate modeling of sea level and storm surge dynamics with several day-long temporal horizons is essential for effective coastal flood response and the protection of coastal communities and economies. The classical approach to this challenge involves computationally intensive ocean models that typically calculate sea levels relative to the geoid, which must then be correlated with local tide gauge observations of sea surface heights (SSH). A recently proposed deep learning model, HIDRA2, avoids numerical simulations while delivering competitive forecasts. Its forecast accuracy depends on the availability of a sufficiently large history of recorded SSH observations used in training. This makes HIDRA2 less reliable for locations with less abundant SSH training data. Furthermore, since the inference requires immediate past SSH measurements at input, forecasts cannot be made during temporary tide gauge failures. We address the aforementioned issues with a new architecture, HIDRA3, that considers observations from multiple locations, shares the geophysical encoder across the locations, and constructs a joint latent state, which is decoded into forecasts at individual locations. The new architecture brings several benefits: (i) it improves training at locations with scarce historical SSH data, (ii) it enables predictions even at locations with sensor failures, and (iii) it reliably estimates prediction uncertainties. HIDRA3 is evaluated by jointly training on eleven tide gauge locations along the Adriatic. Results show that HIDRA3 outperforms HIDRA2 and the standard numerical model NEMO by ~15 % and ~13 % MAE reduction at high SSH values, respectively, setting a solid new state-of-the-art. Furthermore, HIDRA3 shows remarkable performance at substantially smaller amounts of training data compared with HIDRA2, making it appropriate for sea level forecasting in basins with large regional variability in the available tide gauge data.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="21"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Javna Agencija za Raziskovalno Dejavnost RS</funding-source>
<award-id>P1-0237</award-id>
<award-id>J2-2506</award-id>
<award-id>P2-0214</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
<body/>
<back>
</back>
</article>