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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">2190-4995</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2024-1711</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Future Changes of Compound Explosive Cyclones and Atmospheric Rivers in the North Atlantic</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Lopez-Marti</surname>
<given-names>Ferran</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0009-0002-7438-7247</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Ginesta</surname>
<given-names>Mireia</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Faranda</surname>
<given-names>Davide</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5001-5698</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Rutgersson</surname>
<given-names>Anna</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7656-1881</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Yiou</surname>
<given-names>Pascal</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8534-5355</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Wu</surname>
<given-names>Lichuan</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0611-3543</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Messori</surname>
<given-names>Gabriele</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2032-5211</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science (CNDS), Uppsala, Sweden</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, IPSL &amp; U Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Department of Meteorology and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>Swedish Centre for Impacts of Climate Extremes (climes), Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff6">
<label>6</label>
<addr-line>These authors contributed equally to this work.</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>24</day>
<month>06</month>
<year>2024</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2024</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>27</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2024 Ferran Lopez-Marti et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2024</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2024/egusphere-2024-1711/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2024/egusphere-2024-1711/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2024/egusphere-2024-1711/egusphere-2024-1711.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2024/egusphere-2024-1711/egusphere-2024-1711.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>The explosive development of extratropical cyclones and atmospheric rivers play a crucial role in driving extreme weather in the mid-latitudes, such as compound windstorm-flood events. Although both explosive cyclones and atmospheric rivers are well-understood and their relationship has been studied previously, there is still a gap in our understanding of how a warmer climate may affect their concurrence. Here, we focus on evaluating the current climatology and assessing changes in the future concurrence between atmospheric rivers and explosive cyclones in the North Atlantic. To accomplish this, we independently detect and track atmospheric rivers and extratropical cyclones and study their concurrence in both ERA5 reanalysis and CMIP6 historical and future climate simulations. In agreement with the literature, atmospheric rivers are more often detected in the vicinity of explosive cyclones than non-explosive cyclones in all datasets, and the atmospheric river intensity increases in all the future scenarios analysed. Moreover, we find that explosive cyclones with atmospheric rivers are longer-lasting and deeper than other explosive cyclone. Notably, we identify a significant and systematic future increase in the cylones &amp;ndash; atmospheric river concurrences. Finally, under the worst-case scenario, the explosive cyclone &amp;ndash; atmospheric river concurrences show an increase and model agreement over western Europe. As such, our work provides a novel statistical relation between explosive cyclones and atmospheric rivers in CMIP6 climate projections and a characterization of their joint changes in intensity and location.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="27"/></counts>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>Horizon 2020</funding-source>
<award-id>956396</award-id>
<award-id>948309</award-id>
<award-id>101003469</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs2">
<funding-source>Vetenskapsrådet</funding-source>
<award-id>2022-06599</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs3">
<funding-source>European Cooperation in Science and Technology</funding-source>
<award-id>CROIRE</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs4">
<funding-source>Agence Nationale de la Recherche</funding-source>
<award-id>ANR-22-EXTR-0005</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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<back>
</back>
</article>