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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">EGUsphere</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>EGUsphere</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">EGUsphere</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub"></issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/egusphere-2022-912</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Using Probabilistic Machine Learning to Better Model Temporal Patterns in Parameterizations: a case study with the Lorenz 96 model</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Parthipan</surname>
<given-names>Raghul</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1949-0367</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Christensen</surname>
<given-names>Hannah M.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8244-0218</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Hosking</surname>
<given-names>J. Scott</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3646-3504</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Wischik</surname>
<given-names>Damon J.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Department of Computer Science, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>The Alan Turing Institute, London, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<funding-group>
<award-group id="gs1">
<funding-source>UK Research and Innovation</funding-source>
<award-id>EP/S022961/1</award-id>
</award-group>
<award-group id="gs2">
<funding-source>UK Research and Innovation</funding-source>
<award-id>NE/P018238/1</award-id>
</award-group>
</funding-group>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>04</day>
<month>10</month>
<year>2022</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>2022</volume>
<fpage>1</fpage>
<lpage>27</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2022 Raghul Parthipan et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2022</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2022/egusphere-2022-912/">This article is available from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2022/egusphere-2022-912/</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2022/egusphere-2022-912/egusphere-2022-912.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2022/egusphere-2022-912/egusphere-2022-912.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>&lt;p&gt;The modelling of small-scale processes is a major source of error in climate models, hindering the accuracy of low-cost models which must approximate such processes through parameterization. Red noise is essential to many operational parameterization schemes, helping model temporal correlations. We show how to build on the successes of red noise by combining the known benefits of stochasticity with machine learning. This is done using a physically-informed recurrent neural network within a probabilistic framework. Our model is competitive and often superior to both a bespoke baseline and an existing probabilistic machine learning approach (GAN) when applied to the Lorenz 96 atmospheric simulation. This is due to its superior ability to model temporal patterns compared to standard first-order autoregressive schemes. It also generalises to unseen scenarios. We evaluate across a number of metrics from the literature, and also discuss the benefits of using the probabilistic metric of hold-out likelihood.&lt;/p&gt;</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="27"/></counts>
</article-meta>
</front>
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